Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth Continues

Arctic sea ice extent is now almost 50% higher than 2012, higher than last year, and about to pass all recent years.

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Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Government experts describe this as “ice-free”

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US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016 | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | The Guardian

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135 Responses to Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth Continues

  1. gator69 says:

    USN = Chauffeurs for the USMC. You don’t ask your chauffeur about weather.

  2. Jim Hunt says:

    At the risk of repeating myself. So what?

    https://realclimatescience.com/2016/09/more-arctic-records-being-set/#comment-23257

    What would you expect?

    What, if anything, does it prove?

    • Tim A says:

      “At the risk of repeating myself”…your life/career is an echo chamber, we expect nothing less.
      What’s the difference between a catfish and a reporter?
      One is a scum-sucking bottom-dweller and the other is a fish.
      You lie Jim. It’s in your blood. When your lips move, a lie is forthcoming. You and obama are cut from the same cloth. You only fool the fools, you’re wasting your time here.

    • Sunsettommy says:

      It proves that so called Arctic experts have been wrong for many years about their silly NO summer ice predictions.

      You are indeed that slow.Jimmy.

    • Sunsettommy says:

      It shows that the Arctic has no trouble still having over 4 Wadhams of ice left when it begins to regrow.

      Sorry Jim,there is still a lot of Arctic ice up there at this time of the year, a heck of a lot more than ZERO, which has been repeatedly predicted by so called experts, the last decade.

      Jim, and other misleading dishonest warmist people, who ignore a number of published science research, attesting that there were little to no summer Arctic ice for long periods of time, during the Climatic Optimism.

  3. gator69 says:

    What, if anything, does it prove?

    Exactly what skeptics have been saying for decades.

    So, now that we finally agree, will you please stop sacrificing 21,000 innocent humans each and every day? So far your answer has consistently been a resounding “no”.

  4. Andy says:

    2012 was an unusual year, the reason for it being so low was a large storm that happened just at the time when melt was at it’s maximum. So it disrupted the ice and then the broken up ice melted out most easily. It was … weather, not climate.

    Hence why you got the biggest melt in August ever … which is just as irrelevant as the biggest freeze up in September ever. Or since 2012 when DMI started this graph. Which is less than 5 years.

    Taking one month extremes, either way, is not good science, you have to look at yearly trends, not monthly outliers.

    Lets see where the extent is 1st of December. That’s the point when everything normally comes close together, no matter what the summer minimum was.

    I bet it’s “about average”

    Andy

    • Sunsettommy says:

      You missed the point Tony was making,which is that Summer ice is still around, to help the fast refreezing of the region.

      Warmists has for years now, keep making predictions of disaster for the region,especially that ALL the summer ice would be gone.

      Yet here we are almost a decade later,summer ice levels have stabilized.

      • Andy says:

        “which is that Summer ice is still around, to help the fast refreezing of the region.”

        Summer ice is still around every year since records began which is more than one century back…. how does this summer ice help the fast refreezing?

        “Summer ice levels have stabilized”

        any supporting data?

        From NSIDC

        2013 5.06 Sept. 13
        2014 5.03 Sept. 17
        2015 4.43 Sept. 9
        2016 4.14 Sept. 10

        1979 to 2000 average 6.70 Sept. 13
        1981 to 2010 average 6.22 Sept. 15

        Andy

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Andy, just like Jim,make a misleading reply using only the last 4 years of data,when I was talking about the last 10 years:

          “Yet here we are almost a decade later,summer ice levels have stabilized.”

          You then make another misleading reply that has NOTHING to do with what I stated:

          “Yet here we are almost a decade later,summer ice levels have stabilized.”

          You posted an average from 1979 to 2000 and then from 1981 to 2010,which has NOTHING to to what I was talking about.Which was from year 2007 to year 2016.

          This mean from year 2007 to year 2016. 2016 which is HIGHER than 2007 is obvious to anyone, who doesn’t think dishonestly.

          Not only that Summer ice never melted awayto zero, as stridently predicted by warmists idiots, for the last 10 or so years. They have been waaay off on their dooms daying for at least a decade now,but their apologists like YOU and Jimmy boy,keeps muddying the reality with your petty bullcrap.

          You are pathetic.

          • Andy says:

            You never mentioned 10 years in your last post, how was I supposed to guess you had that in mind with your stabilized values? You have cherry picked a really low year as a starting point it seems to show stabilisation. Err …..

            2007 was an unusual year like 2012. An abnormal amount of sunny days plus warm southerly winds, which melted and compressed the ice extent, meant it is another year where it was weather that had the major effect and not long term trend.

            Even so 2016 ice extent is just below or equal to 2017, Jaxa have it slightly lower, NSIDC have it the same. So not sure how you can claim

            “2016 which is HIGHER than 2007 is obvious to anyone”

            It’s not.

            http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
            https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

            You don’t have to be dishonest when you can easily check the facts. Try it sometime.

            Summer minima has not stabilised. It has gone lower and lower, some extreme years mean it sometimes bounces back the next year, as would be expected, but the trend is still down.

            Andy

          • Sunsettommy says:

            You are indeed pathetic:

            This is what I wrote,

            “Yet here we are almost a decade later,summer ice levels have stabilized.”

            ALMOST A DECADE LATER

            Then I clarified it in the next comment in reply to you, with a TEN YEAR range,

            “You posted an average from 1979 to 2000 and then from 1981 to 2010,which has NOTHING to to what I was talking about.Which was from year 2007 to year 2016.

            This mean from year 2007 to year 2016. 2016 which is HIGHER than 2007 is obvious to anyone, who doesn’t think dishonestly.”

            Lets go ahead an accept your claim that 2007 is statistical tie with 2016,it still supports my claim that it has stabilized since 2006.

            Based on NSIDC data:

            https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/nh_sea-ice_2007_trend.png?w=700

          • AndyG55 says:

            This is HILARIOUS, watching Jimbo the clown and the other clown flailing about in DESPERATION. A true circus act. :-)

            Jimbo at least KNOWS that Arctic sea ice has levelled off and is in fact climbing slightly since the AMO topped out in about 2006 (not sure the other clown knows anything at all)

            You would think a clown would know what a cycle was. Looking forward to further clown acts over the next several years. :-)

        • Tim A says:

          “Andy says:”….signed Andy
          I’m seeing a pattern
          “Andy says:”….signed Andy
          Andy’s a bit anal…gave me a chuckle

    • AndyG55 says:

      2016 is an unusual year too.

      Despite being hit by the effects of a large El Nino early in the year it held up, with a short melt season and a very early low point, followed by rapid growth.

      And no one should not look at one point, one should consider the average trend, which since the AMO topped out is basically ZERO.

  5. Andy says:

    Jim’s right. As the extent tends to compress together on the re-freeze, years with lower summer minimum will put on a faster rate of growth. That’s because the ice edge is further north than in a year where it is further south.

    Also, I’d like to point out that just using one ice graph and not more, or even better, multiple data sets from different sensors and algorithms is not ideal. We all know what happened last year on here when we had a massive increase in one graph compared to all others, including another from DMI…….. DMI changed the algorithm and did not tell anyone. It was obvious though, and got more obvious with time.

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/icecover_current.png

    Arctic sea ice extents should be taken as a trend, not monthly or even yearly, due to errors and weather. I would have thought this idea would be supported on a skeptic climate blog ! Seems not, too busy trying to prove a point by grabbing “favourable” data.

    Andy

  6. Sunsettommy says:

    Greg Goodman, made a guest post at Judith Currys blog,showing that the “Death Spiral” claim is not valid:

    Is the Arctic sea ice ‘spiral of death’ dead?

    https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/18/is-the-arctic-sea-ice-spiral-of-death-dead/

    In the post, he shows the obvious stabilization of Arctic ice trend starting at 2006,using NSIDC data.

    Warmists needs to drop the death spiral crap, as it is not happening.

    • Andy says:

      He doesn’t say the Arctic has stabilized

      “The decadal rate of melting has also reduced since 2007 as measured by ice area data retrieved by the University of Illinois”

      He claims it has reduced, not stabilized, and no run away melt death spiral. He may well be right. His conclusions are

      1) the net feedback from open water is negative , not positive and run-away melting was an erroneous interpretation. It is not happening.

      2) the feedbacks are not the key driver of Arctic sea ice melting, there is another external force, such as N. Atlantic sea surface temperature and ocean currents, which is dominant and run-away melting was an erroneous interpretation. It is not happening.

      So, less reflective ice does not mean positive feedback on warming and melting and other factors may have a greater effect. Could be. It will take time to sort out the driving forces.

      What he doesn’t say though is that it has stabilized, as you claim.

      I do agree when he says

      “The problem with this obsessive focusing on one single data point out of 365, is that there is a lot of short term, weather driven variability that can affect the exact timing and size of the minimum in ice coverage”

      Like 2007 and 2012. So taking those as start points is not a good idea.

      Andy

    • Jim Hunt says:

      Tommy – Note that Greg (AKA Brave Sir Robin) rode off into the sunset in the general direction of WUWT before answering any of my questions. Perhaps you could answer them on his behalf?

      Q0. Are you aware that Halloween season has already begun?

      Q1. In your article you state “There have been three notably low summer minima in recent years: 2007, 2012 and 2016. The 2012 event was the lowest in the satellite record going back to 1979. The other two years tie for second place”

      However your graph of sea ice area seems to stop in 2015. Why is that?

      Q2. What evidence do you have that the sea ice is “Even 2.5 m thick over the geographic north pole? Have you seen my photos from the geographic North Pole this year for example?

      Q3. What evidence do you have for your implication that the Northwest Passage must already be “freezing fast”?

      Thanks in anticipation.

  7. AndyG55 says:

    NEWS..

    Rapid growth of Arctic sea ice sees 2016 levels now ABOVE 2012, 2007, 2008, 2011 ,2010 and 2015

    • Andy says:

      Considering you normally complain about the satellite record being too short term compared to the Holocene, quoting a weekly value is some flip flop !

      :D

      Andy

      • AndyG55 says:

        Poor clown#2. Doesn’t understand basic cycles.

        Back to clown school for you.

      • AndyG55 says:

        And yes, it is VERY high compared to most of the Holocene.

        Thanks for pointing that out.

        But don’t worry, don’t frown, clown..

        You are doing a great job showing JUST HOW QUICKLY sea ice is growing this year.

      • AndyG55 says:

        And I repeat, for those that STILL haven’t caught on

        “Rapid growth of Arctic sea ice sees 2016 levels now ABOVE 2012, 2007, 2008, 2011 ,2010 and 2015”

        • Jim Hunt says:

          For those that STILL haven’t caught on I have taken the liberty of reproducing your CIS ice chart from the old thread:

          • Me says:

            Again it doesn’t matter, you will take a win when ever it suits your needs, while all the other times failed. That’s what now 1 out of how many tries again? And when the Ice extent was at is’t lowest I didn’t hear about any successes then?

          • Me says:

            And again, Istill wouldn’t call it a win, since they needed to use fuel oil to accomplish their mission, ya know that stuff you people are against because it causes man made climate change err something to that effect?

          • AndyG55 says:

            Still totally blocked, hey Jimbo.

            Thanks for saving me the effort.

            ““Rapid growth of Arctic sea ice sees 2016 levels now ABOVE 2012, 2007, 2008, 2011 ,2010 and 2015””

            GET OVER IT., Jimbo.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Larsen’s 1944 route STILL BLOCKED

            Amundsen’s route STILL BLOCKED

            Northabout route, ALSO BLOCKED.

            Thanks for showing us , Jimbo. :-)

          • AndyG55 says:

            Hey Jimbo, did you see this one

            FASTEST September sea ice growth since daily record commenced in 1987.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            For some reason Tony’s been neglecting Bremen Uni data recently. Why do you suppose that is?

          • AndyG55 says:

            Gees , Even Bremen is climbing rapidly.

            Did you notice before you posted , Jimbo, or are you just trying to help even more.

            Maybe we should use NSIDC. which sees day 268 2016 higher than 2012, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2015 and 2010.

          • AndyG55 says:

            How are your sewer ladened socks tasting, Jimbo? Perhaps you should try taking your foot out of your mouth.

      • Sunsettommy says:

        You are the one flopping, because many warmists scientists have been telling the world, there should BY NOW be no summer ice left!

        Instead we have over 4 Wadhams left, and now increasing much faster than usual,which should be impossible since the AGW conjecture and warmists loudmouths keep telling us it supposed to all melt away and be much hotter by now.

        You sure wear blinders well,Andy.

  8. ren says:

    The first attack of winter this year in Alaska.

  9. Andy says:

    This shows graphically why a season with very low summer ice extent will always have a higher refreeze rate than ones without. I picked 3 high extents and compared them to last 3 years.

    http://www.zen141854.zen.co.uk/icegrowth.jpg

    whenever there is a very low minimum extent the ice growth is large. It’s just now it has happened in September and not October. It means nothing. Its how it works. People on here are claiming it means something, just as what you call warmists can do. Don’t fall into the trap of using the Arctic to prove a point, it always fails….. even with scientists….

    What is more interesting is the very low minimum for extent, even though this year there was not an unusual event weather wise like in 2007 and 2012. We still have to hear scientific reason for this.

    It will be interesting to see if the low ice extent over winter and ice thickness had anything to do with it. Past information has indicated winter extent has not much correlation. Other ideas are amount of melt ponds in May when the melt really gets under way.

    Lots of theories, no definite answers yet.

    Andy

    • AndyG55 says:

      You CHERRY picked, you mean

      2016 is growing faster than , 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

      LIVE WITH IT !!!

      You really are flailing about like a drunken clown, aren’t you.

    • Caleb says:

      Andy,

      You cannot have been paying attention, to say, “even though this year there was not an unusual event weather wise…”

      Even Mark Serreze remarked how cold and stormy last summer was. In August there was not one gale, there were two sub-969 mb gales. I can’t recall that ever happening before.

      Pay attention, for some surprising changes are at hand.

  10. Sunsettommy says:

    Remember when Steve Mosher babbles about ,1 million is defined as ice free according to the IPCC text.

    Here is the actual text showing that he is a liar!

    Most post this excerpt from the AR5 IPCC report text:

    https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/18/is-the-arctic-sea-ice-spiral-of-death-dead/#comment-812221

    “The IPCC defines ice free as the following

    sea ice extent less than 1sq km for 5 years in a row

    It is very likely that there will be further shrinking and thinning
    of Arctic sea ice cover, and decreases of northern high-latitude
    spring time snow cover and near surface permafrost (see glossary)
    as global mean surface temperature rises. For high GHG
    emissions such as those corresponding to RCP8.5, a nearly ice-free
    Arctic Ocean (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106
    km2for at least 5 consecutive years) in September is likely before mid-century (medium confidence).

    This assessment is based on a subset of models that most
    closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012
    trend of Arctic sea ice cover. There is low confidence in projected nearterm
    decreases in the Antarctic sea ice extent and volume. {11.3.4}….”

    Greg Goodman points out Moshers lie:

    https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/18/is-the-arctic-sea-ice-spiral-of-death-dead/#comment-812290

    IPCC AR5 ( the word according to Mosh’ ) .

    The IPCC defines ice free as the following

    sea ice extent less than 1sq km for 5 years in a row

    Now let’s check what the IPCC REALLY says in the text that Mosh himself provides:

    CMIP5 models project a nearly ice-free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 10^6 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario …

    Though most of the CMIP5 models project a strong>nearly ice-free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) …

    By scaling six CMIP3 models to recent observed September sea ice changes, a nearly ice-free Arctic in September is projected to occur by 2037…

    estimated the annual mean global surface warming threshold for nearly ice-free Arctic conditions in September to be ~2°C above…

    So it’s a barefaced lie. The IPCC repeatedly and consistently uses the term nearly ice-free Arctic . That is clear and even Joe Public will understand that this does not mean the same thing as zero sea-ice.

    There my friend you have blown it . I don’t mind anyone having a different opinion and arguing a technical point but I do object to being lied to and trying to pull the wool over my eyes.

    Anyway thanks for settling the issue. We now know that the “official” meaning of 10^6 km^2 is “nearly ice-free”, not ice free.

    Ha ha ha….

  11. Caleb says:

    The south winds in Parry Channel have swung to the northwest, and the ice has stopped crunching north and is moving back south. Notice both the lead of open water and the piled-up pressure ridges in mid-distance of the picture from O-buoy 14. Temperatures back below freezing.

    • AndyG55 says:

      I told Jimbo the clown that he needed to hurry if he wanted to prove he could paddle around Bass Island….

      … but as usual, he just didn’t listen .

    • Steve Fraser says:

      Looks like I’m gonna need a couple beach towels /sarc

    • Caleb says:

      O-buoy 14 overnight temperatures down to -6°C (21.2°F) again. Any exposed sea-water (including the polynya along the north coast of Bank’s Island) will be rapidly skimming over with baby-ice. Any multi-year-ice will be chilling from the top down, which halts basal melt. Nights are swiftly growing longer than days at the Arctic Circle, as complete darkness creeps south from the Pole.

      The plume of south winds that created the polynya on the north coast of Banks Island moved north of the Canadian Archipelago as a sort of feeder-band for an arctic low pressure. Its heat is rapidly lost upwards to outer space, as cold snows fall on the ice, and gales rip at the ice, creating leads which expose open water to the cold, chilling the waters and creating more ice than a negative AO’s high pressure would create. This observation differs from the assumption that plumes of mild air heading north will “slow the rate of growth” of the sea-ice.

  12. AndyG55 says:

    From Paul H at notalotofpeopleknowthat

    Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987.

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  14. Me says:

    Now see what I did to your best buddy Jim? Handle him the same and your problems will be solved! CHIMO!

  15. Jim Hunt says:

    Andy asks “How thick is that ice in the picture?”

    I’m glad you noticed that, which is precisely my point. A lot of what Tony likes to call “the oldest, thickest ice in the Arctic” has been advected into the Northwest Passage, where it has proceeded to melt. Here’s some more old, thick ice doing just that:

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