Summer Afternoons Cooling in 71% Of US States

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Thirty four out of 48 states show cooling during summer afternoons since 1930.

The thirty four states that are cooling, listed in reverse alphabetical order.

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Fourteen states that are warming.

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13 Responses to Summer Afternoons Cooling in 71% Of US States

  1. Don B says:

    Wonderful post.

  2. Steve Case says:

    Yeah Goddard, but the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says 2016 is the hottest August ever.

    Speaking of that bullshit, I got a phone call, they are going print my letter tomorrow. I’ll put up a link

  3. Dan Zielinski says:

    Just asking – I’m not a scientist or pretend to be one on the internet – but since the 30’s were generally a warm period could someone make an argument that going back further in time would show a different slope? I’m assuming no but I just wanted to be sure for when I discuss this issue. Thank you for all of this information. I enjoy reading it.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Weather is cyclical that means you can get any slope you want by picking the start and end points.

      David Lappi is a geologist from Alaska who has sent in a set of beautiful graphs showing this.

      The earth is towards the end of a warm spike in an overall cooling trend.

      The real question is will the Holocene go long like MIS11 or is the earth at the end of the Holocene interglacial and will soon go back into another 90 to 100 thousand years of bitter cold.

      Both NASA and WIki use Berger’s MODELS to say the Holocene will continue and the Ice Age the earth is presently in has ended. However the current geology, Isthmus of Panama closed and Drake Passage open, does not support the end of the current ice age that the earth is now in. With Antarctic Circumpolar Current isolating Antarctica and keeping it in the deep freeze you just are not going to become Ice free. Also the Antarctic ice has been building not melting.
      ….

      More recent research using real data not models shoots Berger’s models dead.

      A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
      Lisiecki & Raymo
      ABSTRACT
      We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ‘‘LR04’’ stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic d18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka,…

      RESULTS
      Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

      The Holocene interglacial is now 11,717 years old. That’s two centuries or so beyond half the present precession cycle (or 23,000/2=11,500). So the little Ice Age was about the right time for glacial inception. However we had the Modern Grand Solar Minimum – A History of Solar Activity over Millennia

      Will the earth descend into glaciation or be a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial? That is still being argued although the above paper carries a lot of weight. A newer paper from the fall of 2012 Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? agrees and gives the calculated solar insolation values @ 65N on June 22 for several glacial inceptions:

      Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)

      MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
      MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
      MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
      MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
      MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2

      (Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)

      You can see why there is an argument. Solar insolation isn’t a cut and dried measure for glacial inception. Tony Heller, our host, thinks the Holocene will go long. Autumn and winter are occur at the closest approach of the earth to the sun for the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and autumn and winter are shorter than spring and summer. This is the reason for the debate.

      Either way the earth will be cooler not warmer.

      the Pleistocene ice age

    • AndyG55 says:

      And actually, real unadjusted data for the USA shows that the 1930’s, 40’s were most probably quite a bit warmer than now.

      It cooled from 1940 – 1970, then came up a bit.

      USHCN or GISS are heavily “adjusted” fabrications that tell very little of the reality of past temperatures.

      Its a pity they were allowed to destroy the real past temperature history whatever that actually was.

    • Steve Case says:

      The so-called pause was produced (is that an OK word?) by starting with the current value and finding how far back you could go and still have a negative slope. What’s different here is the Average Maximum instead of the average of the Minimum and Maximum was used and 1930 was used as an end point regardless that earlier values could be found. I’m quite certain that several of the Mississippi /Ohio river valley states would produce a cooling trend all the way back to the 19th century.

    • AndyG55 says:

      A nice little video you should watch, Dan.

      https://vimeo.com/14366077

  4. Tim B. Smith says:

    Here. Have a cherry.

  5. Stephen Archer says:

    Why are the States not alphabetic and in fact loaded with the States that argue against your agenda listed last?
    How are the trend lines determined; that is are they visually decided or done with statistical math?
    Given that we live on a 365 day / 4 season planet why only Summer?
    Could the answer be you are cherry-picking to prove your agenda just like you accuse others?
    My, my how dare I suggest that you are as much scientific fraud as you accuse others being.

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