The “Ice-Free Arctic” Big Lie

screen-shot-2016-09-28-at-4-31-33-am-down

Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist | The Independent

Every year we are told by Nobel Prize winners, climate scientists and environmental activists that the Arctic will be ice-free that year. They are flat-earthers.

It is impossible for the Arctic to be ice-free under current climate conditions, because the Earth is round. Because of the high albedo of clouds and ice and the low angle of the sun, north of 80N they don’t get enough solar energy to melt that much ice. The prevailing winds also jam the ice up against the Canadian Coast, and make it very thick.

cice_combine_thick_sm_en_20161013

DMI Modelled ice thickness

Climate scientists have been making idiotic predictions about an ice-free Arctic for generations. They have no idea what they are talking about.

North Pole already ice-free in 2000

CVeD2KRXIAECM7v (1)

Ages-Old Icecap at North Pole Is Now Liquid, Scientists Find – NYTimes.com

Arctic ice-free by 2012.

CRoRxUsUwAA-cKA

The Daily Reporter – Google News Archive Search

CdSMQZDUIAE7aPJ

Star-News

Arctic ice-free by 2013

PaintImage19

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Arctic ice-free by 2014.

CXKkfn8UEAAjWPl (1)

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

Arctic ice-free by 2015.

CdRLjdeUIAEKwhG

What climate scientists talk about now – FT.com

ScreenHunter_9954 Jul. 20 08.27

The End of the Arctic? Ocean Could be Ice Free by 2015 – The Daily Beast

CfrluvmWcAAXcJC

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Scientists have been saying this same story for generations.

CB_eGnxUEAAE-ac

04 Apr 1923 – THE NORTH POLE. – Trove

CVeGa0DVAAAuCwC

The Changing Face of the Arctic – The Changing Face of the Arctic – View Article – NYTimes.com

COQXLnVUcAAtORb

TimesMachine: Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea; Catastrophic Shifts in Climate Feared if Change Occurs Other Specialists See No Thinning of Polar Ice Cap – NYTimes.com

CZkV0YeVAAAoThR

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

CdHndoMUAAA-zM5

19 Jun 1972, Page 41 – at Newspapers.com

CdcHydoUIAA5Q7Z

12 Dec 2007, Page 25 – Arizona Republic at Newspapers.com

CdRIbn7UMAAga9P (1)

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

36 Responses to The “Ice-Free Arctic” Big Lie

  1. Sunsettommy says:

    From the first link is this LIE!

    “The last time the Arctic was clear of ice is believed to be about 100,000 to 120,000 years ago”

    No just early in THIS interglacial period,were long periods of time of little to NO summer ice in the Arctic region.

    This was during the Climatic Optimism time that lasted around 5,000 years.

    • Robertv says:

      At least they confirm that it is not something to worry about because it is normal in an interglacial period. Ice at the end of summer would be something to worry about.

  2. Bleakhouses says:

    Its an anecdotal illustration of conditions but if anyone has not seen it in 2007 the BBC TV show Top Gear ran a race of a pickup against a dog sled to the magnetic north pole, to be the first car to get there. Not to mention that its an incredibly enjoyable TV show.

    • dave1billion says:

      I saw that one.

      I started out feeling sorry for the poor schlub with the dogs compared to the guys with drinking hot coffee from a thermos in their heated truck.

      When the guys in the truck started hitting fields of ice blocks and they had to go outside and chop a path, mushing behind the dogs was looking a lot better.

    • gnome says:

      The only ICE I can bring myself to care about is the internal combustion engine. I can’t see much happening in polar regions without those.

  3. Andy says:

    On the other hand

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36560548

    Those scientists predicted

    “The CPOM team has developed a model to forecast the evolution of melt ponds in the Arctic and has incorporated this into a more general climate sea-ice model. Its simulations suggest sea-ice extent for the end of this coming summer will be 4.5 (+/- 0.5) million square km. This number is for an average across the entire month of September – traditionally the period of minimum coverage.”

    So they were not too far off as according to NSIDC

    Arctic sea ice extent during September 2016 averaged 4.72 million square kilometers.

    So deserve a pat on the back unlike Prof Wadham.

    Andy

  4. Mr GrimNasty says:

    Did you notice DMI reworked that ice volume chart a few days ago, 2016 is now shown below the 2004-13 mean line it was dead behind for most of the season, and now equal/below 2012 at the minimum!

    • Gail Combs says:

      Nothing but Psy-Ops and lies.

      There are a lot of ‘journalists’ and ‘scientists’ that need to be introduced to Madame Guillotine.

      Unfortunately for them, I am joking but others are not.

      • RAH says:

        Don’t bother with the tools. Go for those manipulating and funding them and their functionaries and enforcers. Even cutting the list down that much would have many 1,000s making the regretful climb. Set the machine up at the base of the Washington Monument. The tree of liberty needs seriously watered.

      • Robertv says:

        There are a lot of ‘journalists’ and ‘scientists’ that know too much. You know what the Clintons do with people that know too much. These ‘journalists’ and ‘scientists’ could have a problem with president Madame Guillotine Hillary. But then who is not in danger with her as president.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Wow I had missed that and I had been using the volume chart all summer as a less diddled with representation of the actual state of the ice.
      All is post normal science now with adjusted adjustments comprising most charts and graphs.

  5. John F Hultquist says:

    One might think that “ice free” means the surface of the Arctic Ocean would have no ice – that is, no, zero, zip, none.

    That’s what I thought several years ago. I was wrong!
    I missed the memo, but “ice free” was defined to be less than 1 million square kilometers. This is now (a unit) known as the Wadhams.
    So, when someone writes “it will all be gone” or “In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly”, remember that the goal posts have been moved.

    I wonder if they will move to “2 Wadhams”?

    • Andy DC says:

      They never admit they are wrong, just keep moving the goal posts further and further back. But if you look at their actual track record going back 30 years, they have been wrong time and time again. If they were investment advisers, they would have been out on the street a long time ago.

    • Neal S says:

      I think they will move to one circumpolar navigation in one season, even if it does not incorporate an official Northwest Passage along with a Northeast passage.

    • Louis Hooffstetter says:

      It’s unfortunate that a scientific unit was named after Peter Wadhams (the ‘leading scientist’ cited in the Independent article). He’s a crackpot. He believes three climate scientists: Seymour Laxon, Katherine Giles, and Tim Boyd, were assassinated by either big oil or some evil government.

      Laxon fell down a flight of stairs at a New year’s Eve party (alcohol?)
      Giles died when she was hit by a truck while riding her bicycle
      Boyd was struck by lightning.

      I have as much confidence in Professor Wadhams climate theories as I do in his conspiracy theories.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Not unfortunate at all

        It makes a MOCKERY of him

        Which is exactly what he deserves

      • Neal S says:

        Don’t worry too much about a scientific unit being named after Wadhams. I don’t think it is official. I think it was only coined and used here to poke fun at him.

        I think we could use a similar unit for lies. “Hillarys”

        It likely would be so big as to be awkward to use, so we might commonly use micro-Hillarys and nano-Hillarys. Just the other day I used about 3 atto-Hillarys.

  6. Bart says:

    Bookmarking this one for future use

  7. Oliver K. Manuel says:

    Thank you, Tony, for your efforts to expose the technological web of deceit that engulfs now society. The investigative reported, Jon Rappoport, seems to have realized the problem independently of the global climate change movement.

    A report that solar cosmic rays produce electrically charged clouds, lightening, thunder and rain was accepted for publication on 13 Oct 2016.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/COSMIC_RAYS.pdf

    The sloping error in the cornerstone of post-Modern Physics was published earlier this year in the three different journals or conference proceedings that are cited as (Manuel, 2016 a,b,d). No scientist or editor of any research journal can realistically claim to be unable to grasp the error in using a sloping baseline to define the nuclear energy that powers the Sun and the cosmos.

  8. John Niclasen says:

    Tony, be aware, that the “Sea Ice Thickness” graph from danish DMI has changed in the last couple of days. I include the graph, as I found it 10-Oct-2016. The change seems to be toward showing less ice. We have a little discussion, if the changes to this model always is toward showing less ice.

    You should just be aware of this, if you use this graph in the future.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Let’s look at those two graphs next to each other

    • John Niclasen says:

      Official explanation from

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/icetext.uk.php

      “New graphics
      We have improved the DMI operational ocean and sea-ice model HYCOM-CICE with updated HYCOM code, which includes a better description of the tides. The friction between the ocean and sea-ice is also increased and the climatological freshwater input has been updated. The model has been running continuously since September 1997. Therefore, we have by October 13, 2016 updated the graphics of sea-ice thickness and volume using the new and improved data on Polarportal and ocean.dmi.dk.

      The improved model setup has led to a slight decrease in the calculated sea-ice thickness, especially during winter. Year-to-year variability has also decreased. However, the trend between years is almost unchanged. Thereby, a year with a large sea-ice volume in the old setup also has a large volume in the new setup, and similar for years with low sea-ice volume.

      Mads Hvid Ribergaard – 13. October 2016”

      • Steve Fraser says:

        I would not call 10% ‘Slight’. Looking at the distribution of colors on the two maps, they seem to have cut down the thickness of any ice over 3m by about .5 m. This is particularly noticeable just north of the Canadian archipelago and Greenland. The thinner ice (and extent) seems much less affectd by the algorithmic change.

        I wonder if they bother to validate the model with actual measurement onsite? You know, go there and put a ruler to it…

      • Andy says:

        Thanks John for this They seem to be always tweaking again, which is fair enough.

        That’s why multiple charts from multiple sources need to be cross referenced.

        Andy

  9. Pingback: The “Ice-Free Arctic” Big Lie - Principia Scientific International

  10. Griff says:

    The extent charts – as here -are showing that the initial refreeze has slowed and that we now have ice extent at a record low for this date… also the rate of refreeze much less steep than in former years…
    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/index.html

    also the other ice thickness charts show a much worse picture:
    https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

    any discussion of this ice needs to show both volume and extent: switching between them to pick the highest is misleading

    this is not ice in good shape/recovering

    • AndyG55 says:

      Now perhaps you can do a tiny amount of basic research and figure out why the Arctic sea ice growth has slowed, but Greenland mass is increasing rapidly.

      If can ever engage your brain, you may just be able to figure it out… or not.

      Oh , btw, Sea ice area has started to accelerate again the last two day.

      It will be up with the rest of the years come December.

      Then next year, with no EL Nino.. could get very discouraging for that sea ice worriers. :-)

  11. John Niclasen says:

    The “Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic” north of 80th northern parallel seem rather high from the normal this time of year.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    How much is latent heat from the fast growth of sea ice, we have seen the last month?

    • Caleb says:

      There has been a low pressure up at the Pole more than usual. It is like the whirlpool of a bathtub, sucking milder air north and losing it to outer space. The milder plumes of air, sort of like feeder-bands for the low pressure, are responsible for the milder-than-normal (but still cold) temperatures.

      It remains to be seen whether this loss of heat to outer space will make the winter colder-than-normal further south, or merely is indicative of the planet holding more heat to begin with, due to the lagged effects of the last El Nino.

      • John Niclasen says:

        Interesting point.

        A professor at the university told me recently, that the heat transfer from equator to the poles is about 50/50 by ocean currents and wind. The water can hold more heat than the air, but as the currents are slower than winds, it is about 50/50 heat transfer in the end.

        El Niño is release of heat from the ocean (as I understand it), and the heat will start to build up again. So an El Niño event and the higher temperaturen in the Arctic, as we see now means, the Earth gets rid of a lot of heat this year.

        Will be interesting to see, how cold it will get the coming years. Not too cold, I hope.

Leave a Reply to Louis Hooffstetter Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.