Exxon Didn’t Know, And Neither Did Anyone Else

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23 Apr 1973, Page 21 – New Castle News at Newspapers.com

Democrats claim that scientists believed their catastrophic global warming scam 40 years ago, but (like now) only a few crackpots claiming to be scientists actually did.

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12 Mar 1978, Page 140 – St. Louis Post-Dispatch at Newspapers.com

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8 Responses to Exxon Didn’t Know, And Neither Did Anyone Else

  1. gator69 says:

    But what did they not know? And when did they not know it?

    And even more telling, who did they pay off to cover up what they did not know?

  2. gregole says:

    Tony,

    This is a great article.

    “William Gasser, one of the studies directors, said climatologists do not know how to predict the future….So it was decided to give [policy makers] the best estimates available even though they may be no more than educated guesses based on what has happened in the recent past…”

  3. The Science is Settled!!

  4. Gail Combs says:

    An article from Patrick Hughes in the NOAA magazine in 1974

    Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes. A drop of only one or two degrees Centigrade in the annual average temperature at higher latitudes can shorten the growing season so that some crops have to be abandoned.…
    …the average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries.…
    http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf#page=5

    However the really interesting document is the 1974 CIA report:
    “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”
    http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf

    Pg 7
    In 1972 the Intelligence Community was faced with two issues concerning climatology:

    * No methodologies available to alert policymakers of adverse climatic change

    * No tools to assess the economic and political impact of such a change.

    “… Since 1972 the grain crisis has intensified…. Since 1969 the storage of grain has decreased from 600 million metric tons to less than 100 million metric tons – a 30 day supply… many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…

    pg 9
    The archaeologists and climatotologists document a rather grim history… There is considerable evidence that these empires may not have been undone by barbarian invaders but by climatic change…. has tied several of these declines to specific global cool periods, major and minor, that affected global atmospheric circulation and brought wave upon wave of drought to formerly rich agricultural lands.

    Refugees from these collapsing civilizations were often able to migrate to better lands… This would be of little comfort however,… The world is too densely populated and politically divided to accommodate mass migration.

    Page 18 talks of coming glaciation.
    Scientists are confident that unless man is able to effectively modify the climate, the northern regions… will again be covered with 100 to 200 feet of ice and snow. That this will occur within the nexy 2,500 years they are quite positive; that it may occur sooner is open to speculation.

    page 22 states:
    The climate of the 1800s was far less favorable for agriculture in most areas of the world. In the United States during that century, the midwest grain-producing areas were cooler and wetter and snow lines of the Russian steppes lasted for longer periods of time. More extended periods of drought were noted in the areas of the Soviet Union now known as the new lands. More extensive monsoon failures were common around the world, affecting in particular China, the Philippines and the Indian Subcontinent.

    The Wisconsin analysis questions whether a return to these climate conditions could support a population that has grown from 1.1 billion in 1850 to 3.75 billion in 1970. The Wisconsin group predicted that the climate could not support the world’s population since technology offers no immediate solution. Further world grain reserves currently amount to less than one month; thus any delay in supplies implies mass starvation. They also contended that new crop strains could not be developed over night… Moreover they observed that agriculture would become even more energy dependent in a world of declining resources.

  5. KTM says:

    Eh, there is a tradeoff to arguing that nobody knew. You let them off the hook for all the woefully incorrect predictions they made from the beginning.

    I figure that Exxon can handle themselves. When they claim that the physics and the experimental basis for global warming is 100+ years old, there should be no reason to wait until 2020 or 2050 or 2100 to see what happens. They made predictions that failed to come true many times. I understand if they want to sweep them under the rug, but I don’t think we should help them by saying that pre-1980 nobody believed in global warming.

  6. GoFigure says:

    The most interesting part may be the GIVEN. That the current cooling trend may either continue or end. NO argument apparently, in the late 70s about having been in a cooling trend.

    But (sigh) those anti-DENIERS don’t agree.

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