Record Sea Ice Growth Continues

Arctic sea ice extent for the date has increased 50% over the past four years, and extent is growing at a record rate for September.

avctic-9_26-2012-9_26_2016 osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en-13

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Experts describe this record increase in sea ice as a grim, alarming, death spiral.


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63 Responses to Record Sea Ice Growth Continues

  1. Caleb says:

    Funny sort of “spiral”, to reach the same level as 2007. And of course no mention of the rebound anywhere in the mainstream. This may explain why the mainstream is becoming a backwater.

    • Griff says:

      Lower than 2007, in fact, in both extent and area. In a poor year as regards melting conditions.

      And the age of the ice, thickness and mass are nothing to write home about either.

      Still dropping below 2007 after a decade – that’s not a ‘recovery’ to the much higher levels of 2006 and earlier, is it?

      • Caleb says:

        “In a poor year as regards melting conditions.”

        That is the new sound-bite, but in actual fact it was a good year, as regards melting conditions: Super El Nino to start with, warm PDO and warm AMO, and not one but two ice-smashing gales in August.

        Also the “area” was spread over a larger area, especially if you include all the ice that wasn’t counted because it covered less than 15% of a particular pixel.

        The “death spiral” is malarkey and a red herring, when the real problems are 20 trillion dollars of debt with nothing to show for it, fudged unemployment figures, porous borders, and terrorism.

      • tonyheller says:

        There was a two week dip in extent because a winter like storm broke up the ice. The air was cold when that happened. Only a very dishonest person would blame that on global warming.

        • Andy DC says:

          The short lived dip in the ice was a result of unusual storminess breaking up the ice and disbursing it, rather than melting due to excessive warmth. The fact that the ice was so quick to reform shows that this melt season was very atypical.

          But as expected, alarmist propagandists are spinning this year’s melt season into a death spiral, rather than a minor temporary blip on the charts from an unusual weather pattern.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Yep Griffta, There’s still one heck of a lot of more sea ice up there than the so called “climate séance™” experts predicted.

        nearly 5 Wadhams, and growing rapidly. :-)

      • AndyG55 says:

        No Griff, the RECOVERY to the much lower and highly beneficial smaller extents of before the LIA (coldest period in 10,000 years), has unfortunately stopped.

        Imagine the absolute benefits if the Arctic was actually navigable and fishable for at least some small part of the year.

        As it is, small boats have to press their luck and hope for the right wind to blow the ice around and let them through.

        And bigger boats still have to be escorted by nuclear powered ice breakers.

        • gator69 says:

          Yes, the recovery from an ice free Arctic is quite impressive, given that we have been in an interglacial period for over 10,000 years. I always wondered what the worldview of a gnat would be, and thankfully Griff has provided it to us.

      • RAH says:

        Not a “death spiral” which was predicted and thus not defendable no matter how much you try to deflect Griff. Your death wish for Arctic ice is proving to be a pipe dream. All in the heads of those you trusted to produce reliable science based predictions. What will be the new place that global warming moves to when the Arctic cannot be considered the prime indicator of the worlds climate warming anymore?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Biologists investigating biodata from Arctic deposits refer to the increase in sea ice as the world COOLED to the LIA as being “a deterioration of the sea surface conditions”

          Sea ice is a Pain in the A***, as anyone up there or trying to navigate the Arctic knows full well.

          Less Arctic sea ice would be HIGHLY beneficial.

          Unfortunately the recovery towards the LESSER sea ice levels of the Holocene Optimum, seems to have stopped.

          • Gail Combs says:

            As expected since we are at the rear end of the Holocene.

            For those like Griff and Jimmy Boy who never bothered to study geology, and do not even know the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER.

            Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic

            …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded

            A peer-reviewed paper published in the Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences finds that Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the 20th century was more extensive than most of the past 9000 years. The paper also finds that Arctic sea ice extent was on a declining trend over the past 9000 years, <b.but recovered beginning sometime over the past 1000 years and has been relatively stable and extensive since.


            Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue

            Extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coasts show that these areas once saw seasonally open water. In addition to beach ridges, large amounts of striated boulders in and on the marine sediments from the same period also indicate that the ocean was open enough for ice bergs to drift along the shore and drop their loads. Presently the North Greenland coastline is permanently beleaguered by pack ice, and ice bergs are very rare and locked up in the sea ice. Predictions of the rapidly decreasing sea ice in the Arctic Ocean generally point to this area as the last to become ice free in summer. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of wave generated shores and abundant ice berg dropped boulders indicate that the Arctic Ocean was nearly free of sea ice in the summer at the time when they were formed. The beach ridges occur as isostatically raised “staircases”, and C14-dated curves for relative sea level change show that they were formed in the Early Holocene. A large set of samples of molluscs from beach ridges and marine sediments were collected in the summer of 2007, and are presently being dated to give a precise dating of the ice free interval. Preliminary results indicate that it fell within the interval from c. 8.5 to c. 6 ka – being progressively shorter from south to north. We therefore conclude that for a period in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer….

        • dave1billion says:

          Griff, this is what a real “death spiral” (or graveyard spiral) looks like.

          The phrase and the image it provokes weren’t just made up, but are meant to invoke panic.

          I can’t find a pic of the “Screaming Arctic” or an “Arctic Blowtorch”, but I think those are pretty self explanatory.

      • Doug says:

        Griff, serious question. Why do want so badly to believe in CAGW? Why do you want to believe the ice is melting away? Is it that it’s hard to admit you got snookered? Surely you can’t look back at all the failed doomsday predictions and know intellectually that these people are telling you the truth. So again, seriously, why do you keep clinging?

      • xyzzy.11 says:

        woondered over from WUWT where no-one’s listening to you – eh?

  2. CheshireRed says:

    ‘Today in horrifying climate change developments’. Nicely balanced coverage there. Lol.

  3. Gail Combs says:

    The Progressives have been screaming about CAGW since Hansen in 1988 or if you want since Maurice Strong at the First Earth Summit in 1972. It has been over four decades of ‘CATASTROPHE!!!’ and yet we have bumper crops.

    Meanwhile We have the islamic Terrorist Threat. FBI: 7,700 Terrorist Encounters in USA Last Year

    The economy has sucked for 8 years White House struggles to explain weak economy as Obama boasts of job growth and no one believes the job growth BS any more and if they do they think the jobs are all going to illegals. (Don’t try talking to those who were in the construction trade around here about illegals unless you are wearing ear protectors.)

    At this point no one really gives a rats rear end about CAGW anymore and they certainly are not willing to spend money on ‘mitigation’ even if they do. (Remember Progressives always want to spend YOUR money not theirs…)

    • Richard says:


      Bumper crops due to benign weather, year on year. This got me banned from the Guardian.

      “Wheat price falls to lowest level in a decade —
      28 Aug 2016 – … for first time since 2006 as good weather helps yield bumper crop. … and benign weather have forced analysts to repeatedly raise crop”

      “Malthus Chokes on Bumper Wheat Crop – The American Interest…/malthus-chokes-on-bumper-wheat-cr...
      3 Sep 2016 – Malthus Chokes on Bumper Wheat Crop … Extensive planting and benign weather have forced analysts to repeatedly raise crop outlooks”

      “Benign weather lifts German wheat harvest hopes –…/benign-weather-lifts-german-wheat-harvest-hop...
      15 Apr 2015 – Benign weather lifts German wheat harvest hopes … on course for an “above-average cereal harvest”, if one below last year’s bumper level”

      “Soft Commodities Driven Lower on Bumper Crop Expectations ……40994/frequently-asked-questions.asp
      18 Sep 2014 – Soft Commodities Driven Lower on Bumper Crop Expectations … yields and benign weather conditions confirming the positive picture for all the ”

      “Why fruit growers are walking on sunshine | The Times
      19 May 2014 – Gardeners can expect bumper crops of strawberries, cherries, apples, pears and plums this summer because of a long run of benign weather”Soft commodities continue to decline on bumper harvest and benign …
      “ › … › Soft Commodities
      19 Sep 2014 – Soft commodities continue to fall as the forecast of a bumper crop, … with benign weather conditions in the primary US belts, and a bumper crop”

      • Gail Combs says:

        Unfortunately when the climate switches (soon now) those bumper crops are going to be a thing of the past and the Big Boys like George Soros, Buffet and China who have bought up farmland are again going to make $$$ off of starvation like they did in 2008.

        • An Inquirer says:

          I think it is dangerous to make predictions about future climate. Both ways . . .

          • Gail Combs says:

            We are talking climate not weather. The only long term option is cooler.

          • RAH says:

            Depends on the time scale.

            Milankovitch cycles do occur and do have a tremendous effect on our planets climate over millennia.


            But the everyday Joe doesn’t know that obliquity causes the changing seasons despite having lived under a sun with an ever changing path through the sky and the changes in hours of daylight that he/she have lived through during their lives. And despite having heard the words “equinox” and “solstice” periodically through out their lives most folks couldn’t come close to defining those words for you. And if you tell them and then come back a year later and ask them again they won’t have the answer. And they wouldn’t have a clue what precession is.

            This ignorance of basic natural science in the public is exactly why the powers that be think they can sell the catastrophic climate change scam.

          • Neal S says:

            Yesterday I read about a ‘black moon’ at

            And in the article was some drivel about the new moon being because the earth blocked the light from the moon. I tried to leave a comment about this and looking back now at least the article has been corrected. However the caption for the image at the top still reads …
            “Technically, the new moon is one that is completely darkened by the shadow of the Earth as it passes between the moon and sun every 29.53 days.”

            The author “By Pam Wright” really ought to know better. Pretty disgusting.

          • Neal S says:

            Left another ‘question’ about the images caption. But in case they fix it (like the article has been fixed) I took a screen shot.

          • RAH says:

            Yep! But it’s not surprising. Years ago went to my granddaughters 6th grade class to teach astronomy for an hour. Took my Newtonian telescope. Explained how that reflector telescope works. Explained the seasons. And used the naked light with tennis ball method to show how the phases of the moon occur. I did all that in an hour. The teacher seemed just as interested as the kids and was checking out what I was saying on the internet as I did it.

  4. RAH says:

    I just drove across most of the state of Pennsylvania going west to east on I-70 and I-76 and then up I-81 to I-78 to Allentown and then up north on I-476 go east to west on I-80. Not much fall foliage yet along I-70 and 76 even at the higher elevations. Along I-80 in the east there were noticeable reds, yellows, and browns at the higher elevations gradually decreasing to little fall foliage in the western part of the state.
    That makes sense I guess. The NE PA was dryer this year than the rest of the state so the leaves on many tree species would change a little earlier.

    Here in my neck of the woods in Central Indiana the Red maples are starting to turn and my cottonwood has already dropped most of it’s leaves. But the Silver Maples and Chinese elms are still green and growing. Forecast for us today is for a high of 71 deg. F, Sunny, and breezy. Not that I’ll be able to enjoy it since I’ll be going to bed to catch some rest in case they call me back out to run this evening.

    For the first time since June I did not have to use my A/C at night when parked and very little during the day and this morning (Tuesday) I had to use the heater a little when driving back across western PA and through OH when the temp dropped down to 50 deg. F for a time according to my truck thermometer.

  5. Andy says:

    And look how close all 4 years are on 1st Jan ! :)

    Lets see where we are first day of 2017 to see any significance to the current rate of growth.


    • Sunsettommy says:

      As usual you ignore what the so called arctic experts have been saying that makes many get cynical about their claims. That is why Tony is all over it,to show that there are still a lot of ice up there, that can recover quickly in a short time frame,showing the dynamic freezing process is alive and well.

      There is no “death spiral” and YOU know it!

      • Andy says:

        The so called arctic exprts Tony posted a link to seem be mainly newspaper articles and so I am not sure how much expertise they have on the matter???

        There is still a lot of ice up there, but it’s still the 5th lowest since 1979, which probably has more significance than the weather in one September in one year.

        “showing the dynamic freezing process is alive and well”

        No expert has ever said the Arctic doesn’t have a freezing process after the summer minimum as far as I know, can you show a link?

        I said before the term death spiral was over egging the pudding by the scientists in the last thread. There is still a downward trend though, even ignoring unusual years like 2007 and 2012.


        • AndyG55 says:

          No there is NOT a current Downward trend. There is currently a ZERO trend for the last 10 years.

          Nobody but a monumental idiot puts long term linear lines through just the downward leg of a NATURAL CYCLE.

          Are you a monumental idiot, Andy ???

          • Andy says:

            For someone who has often claimed the satellite record is far too short I’m surprised you have now gone down to 10 years. Any particular reason apart from it starts at 2007 which had an exceptionally low summer extent?

            Whats the graph like when taken from 2006 or 2008?

            I recall that in early 2015 Tony claimed the summer extent would be same as 2006 and that the extent would increase from then onwards. 2015 was actually a lot lower than 2006 and 2016 is lower than that.

            It may increase in the future, we will have to wait and see, but it’s not gone back to 2006 levels yet.


          • AndyG55 says:

            Thanks for the confirmation that you are a MONUMENTAL IDIOT !!

          • AndyG55 says:

            The ONLY sort of cycle that Clown#1 knows.

      • Andy says:

        That’s not what Tony’s post was about though, it is about record sea ice growth in the last 5 years. Hence why I am talking about that.

        I also haven’t talked about ice on Pluto for exactly the same reason.


        • AndyG55 says:

          Its actually a record sea ice growth in the last TEN years.
          as you can see form this data showing the net growth this September.

          2007 -0.239
          2008 -0.099
          2009 0.126
          2010 -0.071
          2011 0.18
          2012 0.162
          2013 0.113
          2014 -0.003
          2015 0.458
          2016 0.638

          • Andy says:

            What’s the significance compared to large gains in October?

            You listed the numbers, but does it mean anything and if so what?


          • AndyG55 says:

            Oh you brainless, non-thinking, bozo…

            sorry Jimbo, but this guy has taken the Clown#1 title off you.

    • Steve Fraser says:

      Looking forward to the next few days of this chart. Extent and volume are advancing nicely.

  6. mogur says:

    There is freezing in the arctic. It happens every year about this time. You clowns think that it proves your point. The current arctic sea ice level is greater than than two standard deviations below the mean. Well, I guess that the second lowest minimum arctic sea ice level on record is just nothing. Nothing to you. Keep thinking that it isn’t about minimums, it is about fluctuations. I have your fluctuations hanging. Maybe the 2016 minimum was a fluke. I don’t know. You don’t know. But, to say that a three week increase proves your point is silly. Silly beyond comparison. “The low 2016 arctic sea ice minimum is not real, it is manufactured by corrupt government scientists.”

    Do you even hear yourselves? You are above the fray. You just know that there is no arctic sea ice decline. You don’t want it to be true. And therefore, it isn’t true.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Average sea ice over the last 10 years.

      This year bottomed out early and has climbed rapidly.

      Get over it , Git !!

    • RAH says:

      I repeat THERE IS NO DEATH SPIRAL and that is the ONLY point that needs to be made mogur. Ice extent is at 2007 levels.
      The jig is up! North Atlantic water temps are colder than a witches tit. Artic ice is growing very quickly and multi year ice is increasing. There has been no ice free arctic not even “virtually”. The AMO is shifting against you. Solar activity is against you. SST’s are against you.
      The hypothesis that arctic sea ice is a prime indicator of a warming world staggers to it’s ultimate demise and sooner or later even the dimmest bulbs will realize that. Then what are you going to point to when you scream the sky is falling?

      • Andy says:

        “I repeat THERE IS NO DEATH SPIRAL”

        Glad you cleared that up. I think most people that is the case.

        You then say

        “Ice extent is at 2007 levels.”

        Which it is. However 2007 was an unusual year where the Arctic had lots of sunlight and warm southerly winds that both melted and compacted the ice. So the result was lower than expected ice extent in September compared to normal. It was the weather.

        In 2016 it was not very sunny and we didn’t have the warm southerly winds, but it matches 2007. Why? That is the interesting question here. Not because of AGW, there is no link so far, at least quantitatively speaking, but why did the ice retreat so far given the average conditions or perhaps slightly worse than average conditions? Hopefully we will get indications soon. Related to winter maximum being so low? Normally winter is not connected to summer melt …..

        If all this is against poor old mogur

        “The AMO is shifting against you. Solar activity is against you. SST’s are against you.”

        I suggest that a) Mogur gets good insurance cover as God seems to take a dim view of him and b) if the Arctic still has lower summer extent over the next 5 years with all those things happening then it will be AGW to blame … nothing else left. Even I will admit it then :D

        Lets see though.


        • RAH says:

          There is no death spiral and thus there is no standing for those that have ever supported the notion that there was one. This even in a year when the effects of a Super El Nino were manifested. And so a corner stone of the warming world and climate change campaign is crumbling before everyone’s eyes and there is really no place for them to turn. No “hot spot” in evidence. No great changes of any kind in the Antarctic. Those that have supported the meme that climate change will be manifested by a collapse of Arctic ice are now reduced to pointing to this or that and saying “Look Squirrel”. But there aren’t many squirrels to distract the masses. The earths cyclonic energy shows a slight down trend, Hurricane’s, tornadoes, wild fires, heat waves, etc are not cooperating. On track for another record harvest of grains.

          UAH and RSS values topped out at about 1998 levels despite the Super El Nino. So what does that leave? Pointing to weather events as climate and the highly adjusted surface temperatures.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “below the mean”

      That is taken from the upward leg of the AMO cycle.

      I would expect a clown like you to know what a cycle is.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Net gains in September for last 10 years.

      2007 -0.252
      2008 -0.175
      2009 0.028
      2010 -0.126
      2011 0.185
      2012 0.087
      2013 0.111
      2014 -0.012
      2015 0.449
      2016 0.528

      Oh look at that, 2016 is largest.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Just updating with most recent September to date, net growth

        2007 -0.239
        2008 -0.099
        2009 0.126
        2010 -0.071
        2011 0.18
        2012 0.162
        2013 0.113
        2014 -0.003
        2015 0.458
        2016 0.638

        Man, look at that sea ice GROW. !!!!

      • Andy says:

        What’s the significance compared to large gains in October?

        You listed the numbers, but does it mean anything and if so what?

        It’s interesting in itself, we will need to see the reason for it, my guess is the weather, it doesn’t seem to be anything to do with winds or the way the ice is distributed.

        Hopefully NSIDC will give an overview in the next week or so.


        • Andy says:

          Also note that 2016 is still 5th lowest sea ice extent since 1979 even with the large gains.


          • AndyG55 says:

            And WAY above the often ZERO summer sea ice of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.

            Why to you Arctic Sea Ice panicker ALSO choose a point of EXTREME sea ice as your reference point, it really is quite MORONIC !!!

          • Jason Calley says:

            “Also note that 2016 is still 5th lowest”

            Also note that “5th lowest” falsifies all the predictions of an ice free Arctic which the CAGW believers have been handing out for the last decade.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Not 1 Wadham,

            not 2 Wadhams

            not even 3 Wadhams,

            but over 5 Wadhams !!

            That’s over half the area of the USA !!

    • AndyG55 says:

      “Maybe the 2016 minimum was a fluke.”

      Large El Nino, two major storms, and STILL the sea ice is above 2012, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2015

      Guess what.. It just reached 5 Wadhams. !!!!

  7. 4TimesAYear says:

    I think we should send those so called experts up there to spend the winter. :)

  8. Andy says:

    So much great scientific debates, –

    Andy says:
    September 28, 2016 at 8:09 am
    What’s the significance compared to large gains in October?
    You listed the numbers, but does it mean anything and if so what?

    AndyG55 says:
    September 28, 2016 at 9:06 am
    Oh you brainless, non-thinking, bozo…

    Reminds me of History Today by Newman and Baddiel.

    “See that abominable snowman? That is your mother that is”

    :) Check them out, they are very funny.

    • AndyG55 says:


      I’m not here to teach you.. you have proven you don’t want to learn.

      Continue to double down on your ignorance.. Tis Funny. :-)

    • AndyG55 says:

      If you don’t think it is SIGNIFICANT, why are you bothering with arguing about it. ;-)

      • Andy says:

        I didn’t say whether I thought it was significant or not, I asked you the significance and you have not said why it was. I’m not arguing I am asking a simple question.

        “I’m not here to teach you, you have proven you do not want to learn”

        I keep asking questions but it seems the teacher cannot answer them…..


        • AndyG55 says:

          You have never learnt or paid attention anything being shown to you.

          Start to use you OWN brain instead of relying on mine or someone else’s.

  9. Andy says:

    Jason Calley says:
    September 28, 2016 at 11:36 am
    “Also note that 2016 is still 5th lowest”

    Also note that “5th lowest” falsifies all the predictions of an ice free Arctic which the CAGW believers have been handing out for the last decade.
    It certainly does.


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