Global Warming And The Northwest Passage

I shall return just once, to point out how wrong you’ve been about the sea ice, in September

Just like Christine Ford, climate scientists are 100% certain global warming is opening up the Northwest Passage.

There are exactly zero ships in the Northwest Passage, and the ice blocking the Northwest Passage in the Beaufort Sea was the thickest on record for September.

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180930.png (1337×1113)

Index of /arctic/icethickness/images

And the problem isn’t just the Beaufort Sea.  My Northwest Passage voyage was cancelled because of too much ice in the Canadian Archipelago.

Last week, the Fairbanks Daily Miner announced that the completely blocked Northwest Passage was open for business. They also said Amundsen required three years to get through the passage.

Rowing through the Northwest Passage and into history | Book Reviews | newsminer.com

Reality isn’t big among journalists.  The passage is closed this year, but Amundsen said it was open in 1903, during NASA’s official coldest years on record. He said he could have made it through in one year – had that been his intent.

TimesMachine: March 9, 1907 

This graph pretty much sums up the relationship between leftists and reality.

graph.png (1130×600)

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66 Responses to Global Warming And The Northwest Passage

  1. Griff says:

    Yes, I got so bored I couldn’t stay away…
    Must try harder!

    So why didn’t the NW passage open? simply because huge amounts of ice were shoved south into the archipelago from the central arctic. Not because it didn’t melt. and even with that and a cold season it came close. Perhaps you should reflect on how it is that the ice is now free to move into the Canadian Archipelago.

    yes, the extent came out at only 8th in the record. After the start it had, odds were on it doing worse than that. This was a colder year in the pattern of weather variation… given a more typical melt pattern we might have seen the predicted new low.

    As usual the arctic surprised… the extent retreated early in the Bering and Barents, retreated farther than usual N of Svalbard and a long way in the Laptev. There were unusual ‘lift offs’ along the Canadian/Greenland coast. Export out the Fram was low.

    and now we have a situation where there was less ice on the last day of September than there was on the last day of August, a late minimum, a slow refreeze, with extent at third lowest for the date and extent growth in Beaufort and Greenland sea being almost entirely wind/drift created – as you can see in diagram here:
    https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg174892.html#msg174892

    Is this a recovery to pre 2007 levels? No. Is it a halt in decline? No. will we see new low maximum and slow refreeze? Very probably. And again the set up for 2019 will kick off with potential for a new low, with just an average or above average melt season needed…

    • Gator says:

      Ms Griff, there is still currently more ice in the Arctic than the average of the past 9000 years. Why do you hate poor brown people so very much?

      • Griff says:

        If there was less ice 9000 or so years ago for a reason which does not apply today, then the comparison is both useless and misleading.

        • Gator says:

          And the same climate forcings exist today Ms Griff, mankind invented the wheel, not the climate.

          Stick your “If” where the sun refuses to shine.

          Why do you lie so much and hate poor brown people?

        • spike55 says:

          There is NO EVIDENCE of anything happening except a RECOVERY from the extreme high of the mid-late 1970s, up there with the extent of the LIA.

          Everything you type is useless and intended to be misleading

          That is what LIARS do.

          • Anon says:

            Spike,

            Griff is never going to change, but you can. I just see the stuff he and Phil post as a joke now. You just need to mentally translate their double speak and hairsplitting into something more recognizable.

            Try this:

            Griff: Will we see new low maximum and slow refreeze? Very probably. And again the set up for 2019 will kick off with potential for a new low, with just an average or above average melt season needed…

            Translates to:

            Linus: “Just wait ’til next year, Charlie Brown! You’ll see! Next year at this same time, I’ll find a pumpkin patch that is real sincere! And I’ll sit in that pumpkin patch until the Great Pumpkin appears! He’ll rise out of that pumpkin patch and he’ll fly through the air with his bag of toys! The Great Pumpkin will appear! And I’ll be waiting for him! I’ll be there! I’ll be sitting there in that pumpkin patch! And I’ll see the Great Pumpkin! Just wait and see, Charlie Brown! I’ll see that Great Pumpkin! I’ll SEE the Great Pumpkin! Just you wait, Charlie Brown! The Great Pumpkin will appear and I’ll be waiting for him! I’ll be there! I’ll be sitting there in that pumpkin patch… and I’ll see the Great Pumpkin! Just wait and see!”

          • Griff says:

            anon… you’ll be in trouble come the end of October…!

    • spike55 says:

      You are LYING and being DECEITFUL yet again griff.

      You are a sad pathetic little twerp, with nothing else in your life except DENIAL of climate history.

      NWP was NOT OPEN all year, yet it was open for passage in 1944 next to Banks Island

      The extent is currently some 9000+ lowest in the last 100,00 years
      So YET ANOTHER LIE from griff

      Stop being a LYING DECEITFUL chicken-little moron , griff, and start realising that current level is actually MUCH HIGHER than it has been at any time except the LIA and a couple of hundred year either side.

      Stop being a pathetic CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

      And NO the ice is NOT free to move into the Canadian Archipelago, because the whole region is ALREADY CHOCK FULL of sea ice.

      There have not been unusual ‘lift offs’ along the Canadian/Greenland coast, they have happened regularly over the last 30 or so years. you are LYING AGAIN.

      On the last day of August DMI volume was about 6.46 Mkm³ of sea ice
      .. on Sept 30th there was 7.37 Mkm³ of sea ice.
      MASIE last day August 4.47 Wadhams, Sept 29th 4.86 Wadhams
      so YET ANOTHER LIE from the LYING arctic bed-wetter.

      Re-freeze is dead centre on the rate for the last 30 years,
      so YET ANOTHER LIE.

      And yes export out of Fram Strait was low, leaving MUCH MORE THICK SEA ICE.

      Is it a halt in decline?
      YES, the decline due to the natural cycle of the AMO halted 12 or so years ago.

      Beaufort Sea extent is growing RAPIDLY
      Canadian Archipelago and Greenland sea are both rocketing upwards

      GET OVER IT, you slimy LYING bed-wetting little TROLL.

    • Griff says:

      Edit: extent was 6th lowest, on 19th and 23rd September, according to NSIDC

      • Gator says:

        Only if you are a new earther, who believes ice first formed in 1979.

        Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

      • spike55 says:

        So in a tiny insignificant period since the anomalous HIGH for the mid/late 1970s

        Move to Siberia if you want LIA conditions .. but you won’t will you.

        You like the warmth and fossil fuel heating available in southern UK.

    • Robert Austin says:

      Welcome back Griff. While you adhere to the belief that Arctic ice coverage will slowly but inevitably decrease and that such a decrease is a bad thing, at least you are rational enough not to make wild and delusional projections about Arctic ice disappearing altogether. Which raises the question, why are you silent in the face of the absurd predictions of allegedly qualified climate scientists such as Peter Wadhams and Mark Sereeze. Skeptics have their kooky members but generally these are not scientists involved in the climate industry. Are you afraid that if you deplore the most alarmist of scientists, you will be banished into denierdom as was Judith Curry?

    • R Shearer says:

      One so noble that he violates his own words out of boredom.

      • Anon says:

        Lol… Watching the Arctic ice melt must be like “watching paint dry”… and it has been a slow melt season… particularly tedious, no doubt.

    • AndyDC says:

      Are you denying that there has been a 12 year pause in sea ice levels, while at the same time alarmists were predicting a “death spiral”.

      Are you also denying that current sea ice levels are not far removed from many years during the 20th Century prior to 1979? I don’t have to go back 9,000 years to make my point, less than 100 will do.

      • Disillusioned says:

        “Are you denying that there has been a 12 year pause in sea ice levels, while at the same time alarmists were predicting a “death spiral”.”

        Yes. By ignoring your question. And he will. Yes.

    • gregole says:

      Griff,

      When will we see an ice-free Arctic?

      Still waiting for an answer.

  2. RAH says:

    “Is this a recovery to pre 2007 levels? No. Is it a halt in decline? No. will we see new low maximum and slow refreeze? Very probably. And again the set up for 2019 will kick off with potential for a new low, with just an average or above average melt season needed…”

    LOL! I am going to save this post and your response Griff. I’m going to put it in a folder and when the opportunities come next year as you take even more dumps I will rub your nose in this pile of poop you just posted.

    • Gator says:

      That would not faze Ms Griff. Her head is permanently in a position that makes it impossible to rub her nose in anything except her own colon. Ms Griff is a massive consumer of the product you offer as nose polish, and regularly brings it here as a result of her illogical thought processes.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Right on Gator …. we would all like to see this issue from Griff’s perspective but are unable to get our heads that far up our asses!!

    • Griff says:

      And you know very well that there’s going to be another 2012. At which point you will keep quiet. Just like tony hasn’t posted his ‘fastest refreeze ever’ annual malarkey this year.

  3. Griff says:

    Are any of you armchair warriors going to make a statement of substance about what the ice is doing? The trend? attaching some evidence in support?

    • Gator says:

      Ice melts Ms Griff, as it always has. This is a perfectly natural occurrence, and it kills nobody.

      Are you or any of you armchair genocidal assholes going to make a statement of substance about why you hate poor brown people? The million you starve annually? Giving any reason for your killing?

    • spike55 says:

      “Are any of you armchair warriors going to make a statement of substance about what the ice is doing? ”

      Its acting exactly as would be predicted by the AMO.

      Has been zero trend for 12 years or so now.

      Is similar in extent to the 1940s

      • Phil. says:

        I thought you didn’t believe in adjusting past climate data?

        • spike55 says:

          Poor phlop, can’t accept REALITY.

          No “adjustment” there, just a more realistic reconstruction done by someone unaffected by AGW cultism.
          Matches DOE and other data far better than the garbage put out not showing the 1940s-1950s dip

          The sea ice extent matched unadjusted temperature data very well.

          Are you saying sea ice extent isn’t driven by temperature ??

          You are an idiot, phlop. !

          • Phil. says:

            No “adjustment” there, just a more realistic reconstruction done by someone unaffected by AGW cultism.
            Matches DOE and other data far better than the garbage put out not showing the 1940s-1950s dip.
            The sea ice extent matched unadjusted temperature data very well.

            Not surprising that Alekseev matched temperature since it was a linear correlation. As Connolly et al. said:
            “Alekseev et al. (2016) recently used Arctic summer surface air temperatures as a direct (inverse) proxy for September Arctic sea ice extent by applying a simple linear regression relationship.”
            “However, because the Alekseev et al. (2016) reconstruction is essentially an inverse Arctic summer temperature index, it cannot be used for studying the relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and surface air temperatures outside the satellite era (as that would lead to circular logic). Also, it discards all of the pre-satellite era direct observations of Arctic sea ice incorporated in the Walsh and Zakharov datasets.”
            The reconstruction by Connolly et al does not show a pronounced 40s dip.

          • Gator says:

            A linear correlation? Where have I seen this before, and why is it a problem? Hmmm…

          • spike55 says:

            No , the other non dip constructions ignore a LOT of data and information from shipping reports etc
            The Walsh etc reconstruction was a biased construction.

            TH has shown penty of evidence that the 1940s-1950s was a period of similar sea ice to now, as does the FACT that small boats were able to pass through parts of the NWP where only massive Ice breakers can now get passage.

            You have been CONNED, phlop, because you are GULLIBLE and have zero thought process of your own.

            Are you saying that Arctic sea ice is NOT driven by temperature???

    • spike55 says:

      Arctic sea ice extent is in the TOP 10% of the last 10,000 years.

      It has barely recovered from the extreme anomaly of the LIA.

      Care to produce ANY science at all, griff.

      Or just more mindless crystal ball gazing and climate change denial.

      • Griff says:

        Look up what physical circumstances applied around 9,000 years ago.

        Note those physical circumstances don’t apply today, note the low solar output and note the continuing low level of arctic sea ice.

        • spike55 says:

          There is NOT a continuing low level of sea ice, there is a continuing HIGH level of sea ice

          Still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years.

          NO they are not the same circumstances, we are currently very much at a COLD period of the interglacial, which is why Arctic sea ice levels are STILL SO HIGH.

          STOP the CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL, griff.

          You look more and more like one step worst than dumbest !!

        • Gator says:

          Ms Griff, you have no clue what drives climate, so your comment is meaningless. Why do you hate poor brown people?

  4. Phil. says:

    Reality isn’t big among journalists. The passage is closed this year, but Amundsen said it was open in 1903, during NASA’s official coldest years on record. He said he could have made it through in one year – had that been his intent.

    Just exactly how did he know that, psychic?
    He stopped at Gjoa Havn on 9th September and then was frozen in and passed two winters there. Just before he arrived there he had run aground on a reef and suffered damage to the rudder. Then they spent five days at anchor due to a severe gale, which he described “there we lay for five days and nights in terror”. The next day they discovered the harbor now known as Gjoa Havn. A couple of days later it snowed, and within a couple of weeks the harbor started to freeze up. When he was able to leave in August 1905 he eventually was trapped by ice at Kings Point where he spent the next winter, along with some whaling ships. How could he possibly know that a month later in the season in 1903 he would not have met with similar problems?

    • Gator says:

      He obviously used the same cracked crystal balls that alarmists used to predict an ice free Arctic that they say should have been here by now. Why is it that Phil never criticizes the grantologists? Must be a problem with his “data”. LOL

    • spike55 says:

      Amundsen was mapping as he went, making for a very slow journey

      The St Roch sailed through Prince of Wales Strait in 1944, not a chance of anyone doing that in any of the years since the 1970s extreme anomaly.

      And of course, we all know that current sea ice extents are in the top 10% of the current interglacial… well above the Holocene average.

      Or would you DENY climate change, phlop. !

      • Phil. says:

        The St Roch sailed through Prince of Wales Strait in 1944, not a chance of anyone doing that in any of the years since the 1970s extreme anomaly.

        Really? The MV Nunavik sailed through there en route to China from Canada in late September 2014.

        • spike55 says:

          A massive ice breaker.

          “The MV Nunavik, a vessel touted by its owners as one of the most powerful ice-breaking bulk carriers in the world”

          vs St Roch, with a wooden hull and 4 hp motor

          You are getting seriously DESPERATE, phlop.

          • Anon says:

            That is a pretty good hand Spike, but I will call your “MV Nunavik” and raise you a “TV Eduard Toll”:

            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/13/shipping-first-as-commercial-tanker-crosses-arctic-sea-route-in-winter

          • Phil. says:

            A massive ice breaker.

            Not exactly, a Polar Class 4 (Year-round operation in thick first-year ice ), but didn’t encounter much ice. Going through the Prince of Wales strait the ice was blown to the one side and the Banks Island side was ice free so apart from one small section, no ice. The captain described it as ‘boring’.

            St Roch, with a wooden hull and 4 hp motor
            St. Roch was made primarily of thick Douglas-fir, with very hard Australian “ironbark” eucalyptus on the outside, and an interior hull reinforced with heavy beams to withstand ice pressure during her Arctic duties. Also a 150hp diesel engine.

            Of course you made no stipulation about the size of the vessels, you said:
            The St Roch sailed through Prince of Wales Strait in 1944, not a chance of anyone doing that in any of the years since the 1970s extreme anomaly.

            Quite a few vessels have made the crossing since the 70s, the Nunavik was the one I remembered following. But since you seem preoccupied with size, the smallest one I know of is the Coriolis 14, a 25 m yacht.

          • spike55 says:

            So a little wooden ship with a tiny motor. (I was thinking of Amundson’s boat in 1903

            Most NWP crossings are through Cambridge Bay.. The FACT is that the St Roch did it in 1944 through Prince of Wales Strait

            And it certainly hasn’t been passable last year or this year, there is just too much sea ice in the way.

          • Gator says:

            Seems Phil forgot to mention the power plant in the little dingy called Nunavik. The builders of that tiny vessel installed one of these…

            The MAN B&W K108ME-C is a low speed two-stroke turbocharged diesel engine for marine engineering applications. It is designed by the Danish department of the German diesel engine supplier: MAN Diesel SE, the former MAN B&W Diesel group, and part of the larger MAN SE.

            If the largest version is ever built, it will be the most powerful piston engine, with more than 136,000 brake horsepower (101,415 kW) in Mk-9 version. The cylinder bore of the internal combustion engine will be 1,080 millimetres (42.5 in). It will be used in new container ships of more than 10,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in order to achieve around 25 knots (46 km/h; 29 mph) cruising speed. The thermodynamic efficiency of the engine will surpass 50%.

            If I had to guess, I would say that the tiny ship Nunavik has a wee bit more than 150 hp.

            OT – How many wooden rental canoes has anyone here ever paddled through serious rapids? Anyone under 150 years of age? Anyone?

          • Phil. says:

            So the St Roch is significantly bigger than the Coriolis 14.

          • Gator says:

            Another pass over Phil’s head. It’s starting to feel like a limbo contest.

          • spike55 says:

            1944. Small wooden boat, no satellite aid, tiny motor.

            GET OVER IT, phlop. !!!

          • Phil. says:

            Hardly, Spike comes on and makes unsupportable statements and doesn’t like being called on them and then Gator comes on with more irrelevancies.

          • Phil. says:

            1944. Small wooden boat, no satellite aid, tiny motor.
            2012 smaller boat, sail.

            Perhaps if you thought before you posted you wouldn’t make so many ridiculous, false statements.

          • spike55 says:

            2012, massive aid from satellite data.

            Perhaps if you ever thought a single rational thought you wouldn’t continue to make a petulant fool of yourself.

            1944, small wooden boat,
            no satellite or communication aid,
            small motor, no backup

            Prince of Wales passage was open in 1944

            GET OVER IT.

            Sail boats all have motors, and way more powerful that the St Roch.

            Were you IGNORANT of that as well, phlop. ?

            Do you still DENY that the Arctic extent is in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years, and that all we have seen since the 1970s is a natural recovery from the most extreme extents of the current interglacial bar the LIA?

            Are you STILL a climate change DENIER, phlop ??

          • Gator says:

            Apparently Phil forgot that he mentioned MV Nunavik, just like he forgot he called model output “data”. This is typical of leftists, they cannot keep up with all the lies they spin.

            Poor Phil.

          • Phil. says:

            1944, small wooden boat,
            no satellite or communication aid,
            small motor, no backup

            104′ long 328 ton displacement, 150 HP motor and sails. Navigation aid from overflying aircraft.

            Prince of Wales passage was open in 1944

            And has been on several occasions since, most recently in 2012 when it was traversed by the yacht Coriolis 14.

            Sail boats all have motors, and way more powerful that the St Roch.

            Hardly, the engine of the St Roch was 150HP, the typical engine on the yachts that have sailed the NW Passage is a 50-90 HP diesel. For example Northanger 48′ long, 85 HP.

          • Phil. says:

            Apparently Phil forgot that he mentioned MV Nunavik,

            No, you and Spike forgot that Spike incorrectly said:
            “The St Roch sailed through Prince of Wales Strait in 1944, not a chance of anyone doing that in any of the years since the 1970s extreme anomaly.”

            Which as I showed was wrong, it’s been done by vessels as large as the Nunavik to one as small as the Coriolis 14 yacht.

          • Gator says:

            So now Phil wants to conflate large sailing vessels with small yachts, and navigating by charts versus high tech GPS. (yawn)

            Phil still waiving his hands trying to get out of hole in which his big mouth entrapped him.

            Poor Phil.

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