Another Epic Forecast Fail In The Works

Last year was a spectacular winter forecast fail for NOAA, and this year looks like a repeat is lining up.

Winter Outlook: Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

10-Day Temperature Outlook for the Conterminous U.S.

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13 Responses to Another Epic Forecast Fail In The Works

  1. Jonathan Ranes says:

    I am getting more worried about what is going to happen to these people when they find out their religion is just like all the others. Eventually the massive amounts of cognitive dissonance required to believe in carbon contamination is going to give way for those on the left who do have an actual human soul inside of them, (approximately 75% of them do hopefully).

    I afraid their reaction to finding out they are just like all the other religions of the past they despise is going to be severe and maybe as bad as their carbon fetish. Oh well we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

  2. John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia says:

    Well, they might get it right 50% of the time. Unlike their climate models.

  3. G W Smith says:

    I’m thinking they must have to pass everything with Big Brother before it gets released, but Mother Nature isn’t getting the memo.

  4. Norilsk says:

    I tell you a time is coming when people will be begging for CO2, only it will not help then one iota.

  5. John F. Hultquist says:

    The long term forecasts via NOAA seem to come from inspecting sheep livers and gall bladders.
    And besides, there is nothing to be done about being told there is a 33%-40% chance of my winter being warmer than normal.
    Our electricity in a 100% electric house comes from the water in the Columbia River, about which we can do nothing.
    Our emergency heat comes from wood I cut on our own property. Should I decrease the amount I stockpile by 1/3 because of NOAA?
    I don’t think so!
    I guess I’d better split more this week.

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
    Interesting winds via Low Pressure systems near Bristol Bay & western Hudson Bay.

  6. xenomoly says:

    How are they consistently THIS WRONG and still trusted? It is obvious their paradigm is wrong if they are making predictions that are 180 degrees opposite to what actually happens.

  7. I am surprised that the Trump Presidency is not investigating those behind this sham, identifying those responsible, and then having an apprentice-like conference where “You’re fired!” becomes the phrase of the day. It would seem “the swamp” is not just limited to Washington!

    Well done Tony. As usual right on target. Please keep up the good work (I know you will :-) ).

  8. Robert Gipson says:

    I watch Weather Decoded. Good analysis plus possible meteor shower tomorrow night.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ltb0Dqwf5-8

    • xenomoly says:

      I saw a really beautiful meteor last night. Blew up with a bright green flash and the embers dropped away quick. Was only a fraction of a second – but it was a pretty big bright one. Normally I just catch the faint streaks.

  9. Bob Mascall says:

    I just hope, when it comes time for “climate judgement day”, no one drinks the AOC Koolaid!

    • xenomoly says:

      Why do people that hand out pamphlets not actually critically examine the claims made in their pamphlets? You should critically examine the 97% claim made therein. Its oft repeated but its propaganda. When you take a distribution of opinions and boil them down to a binary so you can sell a political point — that is a lie.

      Almost everyone here can acknowledge that climate is never static. Almost everyone here acknowledges that there is a non-zero impact from CO2 and other trace gases on the behavior of the atmosphere. Observationally – climate sensitivity appears to be very low. The behavior of the sun seems to have a MUCH larger impact on the climate than the proponents of CO2’s centrality are asserting.

      Then there is the mitigation cost vs response cost. It seems massively cheaper to deal with possible impact than to completely wreck the economy of the western world (not China and India are not required to do a thing) and impose centralized control on all usage of energy. The claims of accelerating sea level rise appear to be baseless – and the rate of sea level rise has not changed on record — and its more based on local subsistence than on sea volume change.

      Then there are the failed predictions. We have been following this claim for 30 years – some much longer. The eschaton has been predicted over and over again to no avail.

      Cyclical relationships are presented as linear trends. Short run trends are extrapolated to insane lengths without rational reason to do so. When I was a kid and this claim was being made – by 2020 there was not supposed to be snow anywhere anymore. (I emerged into sapience after the Ice Age scare).

      I look at the foot of snow on my back deck that I have to shovel and I wonder about how accurate any of these prophets of doom are about any claim they make.

      Making predictions is hard – especially about the future. I think you should examine whether you have a skeptical level of doubt regarding these claims you cannot personally verify – or if you have faith that they are true – justified by your faith that science is self correcting. Hint: climate “science” is as scientific as the gender studies “sciences” that say there is no biological difference in strength or behavior based on sexual dimorphism. Its Lysenkoism at best.

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