White House Chief Science Adviser: Wildfires Are Linked To Climate Change
“While no single wildfire can be said to be caused by climate change, climate change has been making the fire season in the U.S. longer and on average more intense,” Holdren says in the video — further explaining that, on average, annual wildfires in the west have “increased several-fold in the last decade,”
White House Chief Science Adviser: Wildfires Are Linked To Climate Change | ThinkProgress
The exact opposite is true. Wildfires have plummeted over the past decade and are near historic lows this year. There have been very few fires outside the left coast.
After almost 6 years, expecting Obama to NOT ramp up lies is a bit naive.
Now we know the nature of government science in the old USSR under Stalin.
It is amazing that the burn acreage is going down while the mismanagement of our forest is at an all time high. There will be a day of reckoning.
Time to invest in some goats.
The closer they are to loosing the war, the harder they will fight.
The closer to losing, too.
It is truly disturbing.
I believe the administration views November as a big problem.
Hence, the increase in amplitude.
Funding is in jeopardy for many in government and attached parasite organizations!
They should be Scared.
Storms are brewing, IMHO ……
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Why is the number of aircraft used as water bombers being reduced? If there’s an increase in incidents, it would follow that resources required to fight those wildfires would increase.
The WH and Holdren are blowing smoke into the sheeples’ eyes again.
Tony,
Could you have another look at the data.
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html
shows average fire acreage of the decade of 2004-2013 was ~7.2 million acres, while the av. annual acreage burned from 1994 -2003 was ~4.4 million acres. I know you want to be straightforward with the data.
They show data all the way back to 1960, perhaps this is worth graphing and show a trend line.
Thanks.
Holdren’s comment was about the last decade. Reading is hard.
Holdren said: “… in the last decade,” which refers to this decade compared to previous decades. That’s why I showed decadal annual averages.
If he had said “…over the last decade,” he would have referred to change within the current decade.
Anyway, that’s how I read it.
Burn acreage has plummeted over the past decade, and at the time Holdren made his comment was near historic lows. His failure to mention that shows he is a fraud.
Yes, OVER the past decade the acreage looks like it is trending down, but not plummeting.
The historic measured low was in 1984 at ~1.2 million acres. We’ll have to see what that total will be for 2014, but already ~1.8 million acres have burned and we’re only in August with a lot of fire season to go.
Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1960-2009)
Year Fires Acres
2013 47,579 4,319,546
2012 67,774 9,326,238
2011 74,126 8,711,367
2010 71,971 3,422,724
2009 78,792 5,921,786
2008 78,979 5,292,468
2007 85,705 9,328,045
2006 96,385 9,873,745
2005 66,753 8,689,389
20 04 65,461 *8,097,880
Bad forest management of not enough controlled burns and other bad practices allows deadwood and tinder to accumulate and cause fires to be larger, faster burning and more dangerous. Also firefighting equipment and practices may be different from decades past. These may be the reasons that this past decade averages 63% more acreage burned than the previous decade.
Perhaps a salient point is the number of fires. A quick glance at http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html seems to show this to be at a somewhat declining trend 1960-2013. Perhaps someone who has time could post a graph.
When Holdren said “…on average, annual wildfires in the west have “increased several-fold in the last decade,” he was definitely wrong if he was referring to the number of fires per year IN that decade compared to previous decades. 1960-1982 had much higher average number of fires compared to the past decade, but these data are for the whole country, not just the west. The west has by far the largest proportion of both fires and acreage burned. http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2013_Statssumm/fires_acres13.pdf
The early 1980s were by far the wettest years on record in the west. The massive Salt River flood of 1980 destroyed every bridge but one in Phoenix. I was skiing at Taos in 15 feet of snow when Mt. St. Helens blew on May 18, 1980 The next winter Los Alamos ski area had six feet of snow by Thanksgiving.
Cherry picking the baseline won’t work with me.
Conditions in the Rockies are unprecedented in that there are no large fires burning east of Idaho. They have been having heavy rainfall in the Southwest.
Hey jlc! Note also that Tony’s chart is only for the that part of the year from January 1 to August 1 — which is proper since we only have data for part of this year. Since we only have partial data for this year, it is only reasonable to say “how does this year compare to other years in this decade up until August 1?”
It is possible that as the year progresses, we may have HUGE wild fires. Or, we may have miniscule wildfires. Either way, you can’t compare this year to other years unless you truncate those years to the same date range.
You are correct. Still, by looking at the whole year data, you avoid cherry picking of year to month data. That’s why it is instructive to compare whole year data and why I sent the link to data from 1960 on. The 63% acreage burned increase in the past decade compared to the previous decade is in whole year data.
With that said, I think acreage burned and number of wildfires is not a useful indicator of climate since there are other variables involved such as amount of deadwood allowed to have been accumulated, fire suppression efforts, precipitation, and the care of the public in avoiding setting fires, etc. For these reasons I suggest eliminating discussion of wildfire from climate consideration.
He also restricted the comment to “in the west”, by which I assume he means Western US. Have isolated stats for that? I don’t want to cite your post if it’s open to simple challenges like that!
You’re right.
As I posted above :
“…these data are for the whole country, not just the west. The west has by far the largest proportion of both fires and acreage burned. http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2013_Statssumm/fires_acres13.pdf ”
This link shows state by state burns and acreage burned for 2013.
Previous years’ links are at the near bottom of the page – Historical year-end fire statistics by state (source NICC) – on:
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.html
They show individual links for years 2002-2013. Each has states’ breakdowns for that year.
Steven,
This probably doesn’t belong here, but:
http://www.joseduarte.com/blog
An ASU lad to boot!
Go Sun Devils!
As Dr Tim Ball quotes on his latest blog –
His latest is called “Climate Science; Winning The Science Battle, But Losing the Policy War -”
– See more at: http://drtimball.com/2014/climate-science-winning-the-science-battle-but-losing-the-policy-war/
Individuals inside the Australian BOM fully support the Climate propaganda campaign from the White House. We have a Tasmanian “Climatologist” still praying for an El Nino this year, despite the fact it’s stillborn. Tasmania has been a hotbed for watermelon green activists ever since the 1960’s, so its par for the course.
http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/2468531/el-nino-dragging-its-heels-but-still-on-way/?cs=130
“While no single wildfire can be said to be caused by climate change”
How does that work? Every other one is caused by climate change?