This graph of US summer temperatures is a stunner. The most obvious feature is the incredibly hot 1930’s, which NASA and NOAA are working very hard to erase.
But beyond that, what catches my attention are the 50 year cycles of warming, followed by a decade of very sharp cooling. If the pattern holds true, we can expect to see a sharp decline in US temperatures over the next decade.
Looks like even the chart is giving the “Global Warming crowd” the finger…………..
Well that makes too much damn sense. Stop it Tony. You’ll confuse me.
Reblogged this on Catholic Glasses.
Thanks, Steven, for doing the job government scientists are supposed to be doing?
Government scientists are really doing precisely what they have been told to do: Hide the fact that wannabe world tyrants and their church of sacred carbon are no match for Marduk, the sun god of Babylon:
http://churchofsacredcarbon.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/et-tu-utu-marduk-amar-utu/
Except that we’ll only see that information here. NOAA will report from the Twilight Zone. Maybe we can find a shot of Gavin as Rod Serling.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vhAsCYc9rYo/T6seqkAnUHI/AAAAAAAAj6g/R5dYL_aLD1k/s400/rod-serling.jpg
And as I’ve pointed out before to people, it’s a slow rise in the warming part of the cycle but a steeper fall to the cooling. I wonder how the PDO and AMO cycles fits into the pattern.
But weather and climate these days is not about cycles and patterns it’s all about data processing, and alarming the public. Thankfully there are some notable exceptions – meteorologists like Joe Bastardi, etc, even Piers Corbyn, and climate analysists like Richard Lindzen, Don Easterbrook, Tim Ball, Roy Spencer, etc. Yes they all see the computer simulations, and lots of the new research but then apply their own knowledge, logic, and skill to make it all meaningful and appropriate – they do not needlessly alarm the public with stupid, unreasoned, predictions.
Yep… computer models can be really dumb…
In the 70’s these fools straight – lined temperature downward based on the current pattern… later evolved the Hockey Stick… probably an Excel Spreadsheet graph pointing upward..
I wonder how the PDO and AMO cycles fits into the pattern.
Purrfectly…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4nh/from:1850/mean:12/detrend:0.8/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/mean:12
Neat. 🙂
Neat for HADCRU and AMO.
I’m wondering about Steven/Tony’s graph and how will the PDO/AMO affects the US temperature record.
I fully expect there to be a (sort of) fit that is moderated by years of El Nino affecting it, and other years when Arctic Air will (jet-stream wobbles). But it would be nice to see.
Woodfortree site can’t do this as they do not have Tony’s (undoctored) data.
Good Lord. It’s almost, dare I say it, a carbon copy.
My vote for joke of the day (and surprisingly true.)
Thanks for the woodfortrees plot.
The central oscillation of the AMO has ~ 50 years, similar to the period shown in Steve’s graph, but the other two oscillations are “stretched” (rate of decrease- for the 1st oscillation- or increase-for the present oscillation- different from the central one).
Taking the early 1970’s as the start point of the present AMO oscillation (in the plot), we’d have nearly 40 years already of “ascending phase”, while in the central oscillation it took ~ 25 years.
It clearly agrees with the solar forcing in these periods, IMO.
The 60 years periodicity could be related with the coincidence of the AMO and PDO on negative and positive phases, but the well defined period of 10 years of fast decline cannot be explained.
In the first period (with minimum ~ 1905) the AMO was negative but the PDO was not.
the “Plot”
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4nh/from:1850/mean:12/detrend:0.8/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/mean:12
You might be Progressive if you believe that learning is over-rated.
Superstitious savages regard words and numbers as magic–say the word, write the word, make up numbers, and Progressives “create reality.”
Realists realize that numbers and words are descriptive, not creative: but then, realists learn things.
On a similar note, California is “overdue” for a major (7.0+) earthquake.
How was that determined? Is there an earthquake schedule? We humans don’t have a comprehensive earthquake record of North America–“Native American” record keeping doesn’t translate readily into modern American record keeping. The North American earthquake record for California isn’t all that reliable 150 years ago–many earthquakes were not noticed. I’m still learning how long an “earthquake cycle” is–keeping in mind that investment dogma that “past performance is no guarantee of future profits.”
Will NOAA and NASA tamper with earthquake data, too? With “rising sea levels” those two agencies are missing the obnoxiously “obvious” connection between global warming and earthquakes! Think of the dollars they could squander!
All the fracking is causing earthquakes and wildfires. .. plus it melts the poles…
What is their disconnect with natural processes? The “oceans ate my heat” meme requires us to believe hot sea water moves down 2,000m in a water column without warming the intervening water. Hydraulic fracturing at depths of 2 or 3km (deepest on record is 6km) is causing earthquakes… when “shallow” quakes are 5 to 10km deep in the rock and major quakes are far deeper. (That last 6.0 in SF was ~11km deep.) I guess the real culprit we should be looking for is Mother Nature’s “Star Trek” transporter mechanism that is moving all of this evil Mann-made carbon, heat and fracking fluid to where it can do the most damage… without leaving a trace as to how it got there and what it did.
The middle sector of the San Andreas has been tied up for 300 years while the northern and southern sections have already moved. This will be a MASSIVE quake and probably will shoot 33 feet away from each other (the east and west halves, that is) and I predict the water flowing to LA will vanish into the desert, all electricity from the Hoover Dam will cease and nasty things will happen in LA, big time.
This is no joke, and it WILL happen. With little warning.
Well then I should move from LA to San Francisco to be safe!
“Weather becomes climate after 30 years” is what they say to pretend that the 17-year pause is just weather. Then I say, “Global warming was 1974 to 1998 that’s only 24 years. That was just weather.”
It’s patterns and cycles. Straight lines don’t belong. Waves and oscillations rule.
Um, this is not global warming. The NRO article The Big Chill from a couple weeks ago highlights record cold temperatures this summer across the country, and that’s after a record cold winter! I assume the warmists will figure out how to call this “the hottest year ever.” Right: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/385211/big-chill-deroy-murdock
There’s 781 comments at the article.
The world will “experience” the drop, but you will not “see” it. As the latest from Joanne Nova shows, they will not allow it to be seen.
“If the pattern holds true”
This is a great disclaimer and one that I don’t see thee alarmists offer. It accounts for the fact that we could be seeing cycles within cycles.
For example, there may be another cycle (or multiple cycles) overlaid on the 50/10 year cycle that will only become obvious after we have a millenium or so of reliable temperature data.
Unfortunately, the AGW crowd has refused to acknowledge the lack of data from the beginning.
Their temperature data sample size is really miniscule when you’re looking at something as complex as the climate cycles for the Earth. So they use unreliable proxy data that requires them to “hide the decline”. Then they further corrupt the raw real data by “adjusting” the temperatures.
The Medievel Warm Period? Merely a regional phenomenon that, despite being well documented, must be discounted and done away with.
That’s always been my issue with the AGW crowd. Their data sample size simply isn’t large enough to produce any meaningful analytical results.
And then they prescribe draconian “cures” for an illness that they can’t prove that I have.
Maybe they have learned something from the actual data. The latest claim of a 10 year longer hiatus, “because of the heat in the atlantic” may be based on actual data time wise. In other words, the next spike of the 60 year cycle…..
Global Warming crowd