During the 1980’s there was a lot of old, thick ice in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas.
Starting in 1988, the winds shifted, and the older ice began getting rapidly pushed out into the North Atlantic. By about 10 years ago, essentially all of the older ice was gone from the East Siberian Sea, which led to the series of low summer extents beginning in 2007.
About five years ago, the winds reversed, and older ice is again being retained in the western Arctic. The ice is circulating clockwise and may start advancing into the East Siberian Sea, which would mean a return to the large summer extents of the 1980s.
You mean there is natural variability in the Arctic? What a concept. Reading some of the anecdotal reports from Arctic travellers and researchers back in the 50’s it is obvious that the region has gone through other sea ice expansions and contractions… relative cold periods and relative warm periods. Who would have thought that based on the warmists’ portrayal of a region as one big solid and consistent chunk of ice before CO2 became an “issue”???
The collapse that continued until 2012 has stalled but there’s no real sign of recovery. Look at the ice volumes now and in the 1980’s, the difference is huge.
See above.
Because the recovery, just like the loss, doesn’t happen overnight . . . These are multi decadal processes.
Except if you are Mark Serreze, then the Death Spiral is happening like so fast and like right now.
“Except if you are Mark Serreze, then the Death Spiral … ”
Thanks for getting that fellow’s last name in there to avoid taring all people named Mark. We drummed him out of the club a long time ago! 🙂
And your point is? Catastrophism, the theory that geological change could only come about by sudden, violent, processes, was put to rest during the early 20th century. It’s time to put catastrophic climate change on to the scrap heap of history, also. Particularly in the current absence of global warming.
ERRRRrrrr
Not quite. I just addressed that HERE
The switch from the Wisconsin Ice Aged to the Holocene happened in ONE YEAR!
And I keep coming back to frozen mammoths. They froze however many thousands of years ago and, until recently, never warmed enough to decompose. That would seem to be a really quick climate change.
So Gail did Reggie show up with his blow torch and start melting the ice to end the ice age 😉
Reggie must have had one He!! of a blow torch, not to mention the secret to eternal youth.
{:>D
I know. Obviously catastrophic geological events happened in the past, also. But by and large climate change events are epoch long in cycles. I was just reacting to the idea that there hasn’t been an immediate recovery with the implication that one isn’t going to happen.
http://images.sodahead.com/profiles/0/0/2/1/3/7/9/4/9/why-dont-we-have-both-90337332070.jpeg#why%20don%27t%20we%20have%20both
Cycles, gradual change, and catastrophism are not exclusive of each other. They are most likely layered upon each other.
Actually the ‘theory’ that seems most logical to me is Dr. Browns Chao’s theory with ‘Strange Attractors’ The weather bumps along doing its thing swing between reasonable limits until a bunch of factors all line-up in the right way and the climate gets kicked into ‘orbiting a new strange attractor’
Think glacial/ interglacial and the D-O events during a glacial that are short warming to near interglacial temperatures. Bond events seem to be D-o events that occur during interglacials but are bounded on the upswing side.
A change to the opposite direction starts with a stop.
Graph of albedo note sharp inflection point
Some of the “new” 5 year + multiyear ice is a result of pressure ridges building up as the relatively newer, less massive, and thinner plates are easily pushed against each other by wind driven movement. The thickness of the pressure ridges guarantees that they will become new “5 year +” ice, but the long ridge strips do not permeate the Arctic ice fields yet.
At this point in time, Kassu seems to have it right!
There had been a big shift in the arctic oscillation but now it is shifting back.
From nsidc:
” When the Arctic Oscillation is in its negative mode, he said, the winds and ice tend to flow in a clockwise direction, generally keeping more of the older, thicker ice in the middle of the Arctic. In the positive phase, that old ice tends to get pushed out of the Arctic along the Greenland coast.”
http://nsidc.org/icelights/2012/02/02/the-arctic-oscillation-winter-storms-and-sea-ice/
See the shift and shot back here — AO 1950-2014 for jan feb mar:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml
AO has been negative since the later part of May:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
There are two major paths of ice movement, the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift. Several published papers note that the 2007 minimum was due to the predominance of the Transpolar Drift in the early 2000’s that pushed the multi-year ice out of the Arctic to the North Atlantic. No major role for AGW in that process. The Ice Queens have latched on to the ice loss due to that cyclical change in weather to claim a correlation with CO2. All the while the lower ice coverage in the fall and winter has released greater amounts of heat from the Arctic waters.
The last couple years the Beaufort Gyre has returned as the dominant process and the ice is recirculating, building up the MYI. When the MYI in the Beaufort today completes the cycle to the South, back to the Canadian Arch. then the low sea ice area cycle will be over.
With thicker MYI covering a larger area of the Arctic this winter, expect the temperatures this winter to drop a bit closer to the average. The elevated temperatures through the recent winters is due to thinner ice, not CO2. It will take several years, but the pendulum is swinging back the other way.
Just in time for the solar minimum…..that we’ve been told doesn’t matter.
+1
nice synopsis
People ignore the big ice loss c.1910-1940. Same natural variation, of course no satellite data, so just pretend it never occurred. The funny thing is that the mean is 1979-2000, as if 22 seasons was the sole alleged predictor for future ice! Why not give the mean 1979-2013 and then see what we’ve got. But the cherry picking by the AGW crowd relies on just those 22 seasons. For a reason of course.
Captain E. Smith ignored the “big ice loss c.1910-1940.”
He and 1500 people paid with their lives for his ignorance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Titanic_iceberg.jpg
Then 101 years later, there is “Professor” Chris Turney who almost paid for his ignorance with the lives of 70 climate tourists in Antarctica.
Andy, it was not ignorance it was shear bullheaded arrogance and stupidity.
The Turkey was TOLD by the ship to get his @$$ back on board NOW!
He ignored that direct order and instead took one of the two remaining Argos (they swamped the third) to give the Australian green politician on-board, Janet Rice, a sight seeing tour and photo ops. This bit of idiocy delayed the ship long enough that the window they had to escape closed. The ship was stuck because the ‘Tourists’ took an additional two hours getting back to the ship after the Captain recalled them.
(Old WUWT comment )
Yes – we have 6 years of Senator Janet Rice’s watermelon agenda to survive here in Oz.
I was hoping Australia’s Immigration Dept would also revoke Chris Turney’s visa and ship him back to his home country – England. At least we could be rid of one alarmist.
Instead they sent Looney Lew (Lewandowsky) to the UK. Too bad it was not by ship by way of the Antarctic with a short stop to let Lew step ashore to admire the tropical paradise while they paddled like he!! in the opposite direction.
Yes, but the new ice is warmer — thinner, less robust, less committed, full of air bubbles, etc. Brittle Ice Syndrome (BIS) is a known side-effect of global warming. They don’t make ice the way they used to.
Those “air bubbles” – they wouldn’t be CO2 would they?
If we could just get our hands on that “fizzy ice” there would be no need for carbonating soft drinks anymore. Put the Coke brothers out of business once and for all.
😀
It’s all rotten CO2 infested new-age ice. It will last until it goes away 🙂
Post-Normal ice…
Wow… great series of posts Mr. Goddard!!
80 years ago stuff, massive drought at well under 400ppm, Arctic Ice extent seems more about the wind than temperature…
Sorry, but your analysis can’t be correct. It makes too much sense and opposes the computer models which we all know is where the true reality lies. /sarc
I guess it makes sense that a generation that’s grown up with computer games would believe that computer generated models actually mimic reality.
James the Elder says:
And I keep coming back to frozen mammoths…..
It is the Mammoth that froze still chewing buttercups that sends chills up my spine… Oh thats just the open window.
Actually it looks like it fell into a fissure and was buried
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/mammoths.html
Don’t forget Emma Thompson!
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/08/emma-thompson-arctic-send-tony-abbott-climate-change-message
Another paper explaining why earth is getting colder and probably will continue to do so:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-paper-finds-multiple-solar.html
What ever happened to Man-Made Global Warming? Remember that?