Explaining Arctic Climate Science With Pictures

11 Responses to Explaining Arctic Climate Science With Pictures

1. Dmh says:

   July 14, 2014 at 1:23 am

   I think the truth about the Arctic ice this year will be evident in a few days from now,
   http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
   Last year the ice extent developed a “plateau” for a few days and then went down again, but in a higher level than the previous years.
   The ice stopped melting for a few days in July of 2013.
   Will the same happen again this year?
   Solar radiations are considerably higher now than in 2013 at the same period,
   that’s why I have some doubts.
   On the bright side, the Atlantic is colder now than 1 year ago and this should make some difference too.

   Reply
   • stevengoddard says:

     July 14, 2014 at 1:25 am

     There is a cyclone moving into the western Arctic which will spread the ice and cause extent to increase in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.

     Reply
     • Dmh says:

       July 14, 2014 at 1:45 am

       Good to know, it’s a delicate balance I think between the two major players, solar radiations and ocean cycles. Do you know if this is related with the relative cooling of N. Atlantic this year, or it’s just random?
       I’m convinced that If the radiations were “strong” (relatively speaking) last year as they’re now, the great recovery of 2013 would not have happened.
       With a bit luck in a few days the critical point will be passed and we could have a repeat of of the summer extent of 2013 or even a little more.

       Reply
       • stevengoddard says:

         July 14, 2014 at 1:55 am

         I have no idea.
       • Brian G Valentine says:

         July 14, 2014 at 2:21 am

         “radiative cooling” => insufficient cloud cover and/or low RH
         Where are you getting that from?
2. Cam says:

   July 14, 2014 at 4:59 am

   Hi Steve, I wonder whether the Antarctic is being exceptionally cold, or has Accuweather instrumentation faulty.

   I was just looking at random stations such as Vostok, Concordia and Scott and noticed the July temperatures are far below the July

   http://www.accuweather.com/en/aq/concordia-station/2273692/month/2273692?view=table

   Am I reading this right? Or is this website usually unreliable? I only ask as the temperatures at Concordia state the average temp for July is -18, but during July the temperature has not risen above -55.

   Interested to hear others feedback.

   Reply
   • Ben Vorlich says:

     July 14, 2014 at 6:46 am

     IceAgeNow reported this from Meteo France a few days ago, you’ll have to use something like Google Translate if you don’t read French. A French Antarctic weather station reported coldest June on record.

     http://www.meteofrance.fr/web/comprendre-la-meteo/actualites?articleId=8990197

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   • Dmh says:

     July 14, 2014 at 6:40 pm

     It makes sense in terms of what previous data shows,
     /1/ last year registered the 2nd lowest temperature on Earth on east Antarctica
     ”.. NASA satellite data from east Antarctica shows Earth has set a new record for coldest temperature ever recorded: -94.7C (-135.8F). It happened in August 2010 when it hit -94.7C (-135.8F). Then on 31 July of this year [2013], it came close again: -92.9C (-135.3F).”
     http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/10/coldest-temperature-recorded-earth-antarctica-guinness-book

     /2/ the antarctic ice extent anomalies have been systematically increasing since 2011
     http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
     with a spike above 2 million km2 at the end of last June

     /3/ even analyzes of reports that support AGW agree that Antarctica is cooling,
     http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/67/7/10.1063/PT.3.2449?dm_i=1Y69,2LFVV,E4CSKB,9H5SN,1
     ”The ozone hole also affects the Southern Hemisphere’s surface climate. As the Sun returns to Antarctica [in the spring], ozone should be present, absorbing radiation and thereby warming the polar vortex. There is less heating because of ozone depletion, Antarctic lower-stratospheric temperatures are below their pre-ozone-hole average during spring and summer, and the [cold] polar vortex persists one to two weeks longer. Because the circumpolar flow around Antarctica extends to the surface, the tropospheric jet is strengthened during the southern summer, which increases the surface wind stress and thereby modifies the ocean circulation. Increased greenhouse gas levels lead to surface warming in the Arctic and might be expected to have the same effect in the Antarctic. However, observations and models show that the ozone depletion has caused the interior of Antarctica to cool. The wind and temperature changes driven by ozone depletion also change Southern Hemisphere precipitation patterns.”

     That’s what I believe is happening: the entire S. Pole is cooling and the trend accelerated recently, because it’s not caused by O3 depletion, which varies from season to season,
     http://www.environment.gov.au/node/22194
     but by solar radiations.
     The cooling intensified after 2007 when the new solar cycle began, with increasingly higher anomalies, and these anomalies often reach their greatest value at the end of the year when O3 is normal.
     I believe the cooling of the SP is affecting the ENSO patterns (decreasing the intensity and frequency of El Nino’s), because is accelerating the cooling of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and is indirectly affecting the temperature of the entire globe.

     Reply
   • Dmh says:

     July 14, 2014 at 6:46 pm

     Here is the O3 data from TEMIS since 1979
     http://www.temis.nl/protocols/o3hole/o3_history.php?lang=0
     At the end of the year the levels are back to normal.

     Reply
3. Bob Greene says:

   July 14, 2014 at 10:33 am

   Temperatures in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s are red hot?

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4. Bob Knows says:

   July 14, 2014 at 4:18 pm

   We have this crazy thing going on this year. I think its called, “summer.” We need a huge new tax to prevent it from coming back next year.

   Reply