Cold January-March Is Weather. Warm December Is Climate.

Posted on January 1, 2016 by Tony Heller

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About Tony Heller

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48 Responses to Cold January-March Is Weather. Warm December Is Climate.

  1. AndyG55 says:
    January 1, 2016 at 7:03 am

    What is an Emmy Award for.. ?

    Acting and TV front presentation.

    Pretty sure its NOTHING to do with science. šŸ˜‰

    Reply
  2. gator69 says:
    January 1, 2016 at 11:12 am

    Deep greens & blues are the colors I choose… green agendas and blue pills.

    Rockabye sweet baby Eric.

    Reply
  3. markstoval says:
    January 1, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    Happy New Year one and all. Here is an off topic (sorta) gift.

    Over at Tallbloke’s Talkshop is a great post. Humorous and it has a great graphic. it is about “Ocean Acidification” which the essay claims is the new scare story. It does not matter if one agrees with that, the essay is still worth reading. It is a hoot.

    https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/acid-bath.jpg?w=614

    Tony Thomas: The Fishy ā€˜Scienceā€™ of Ocean Acidification https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/01/tony-thomas-the-fishy-science-of-ocean-acidification/#more-24811

    In one celebrated episode involving Climate Scienceā„¢, a lone oyster farmer in Maine put his oysters into a bucket and then found that the bivalves at the bottom were crunched because their shells were weakened.[1] Can any reasonable person ask for better scientific proof of ocean ā€œacidificationā€?

    ā€œOcean Acidificationā€, the evil twin of global warming, is scary because the chemistry is so simple. For example, the Australian Academy of Science in its curriculum for secondary schools, organizes an experiment for 16-year-olds where crushed ocean shells go into a test tube of sea water. You add acid or vinegar or something, and then watch the shells fizz and dissolve!

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      January 1, 2016 at 1:00 pm

      “You add acid or vinegar or something, and then watch the shells fizz and dissolve!”

      Rolls eyes
      The counter to that crap. (A test tube is NOT the ocean)

      The oceans are highly buffered by calcium Ca++ (and magnesium Mg++)
      Calcium is the main cation in river water, followed by Na and Mg, then K.

      http://www.ocean.washington.edu/courses/oc400/Lecture_Notes/CHPT4.pdf“>
      LECTURE NOTES
      Chpt 4: Major Ions of Seawater…. James Murray, Univ. Washington

      grams/Kilogram @ salinity S – 35.000%
      Na+ 10.781
      K+ 0.399
      Mg++ 1.284
      Ca++ 0.4119
      Sr++ 0.00794

      1. estuaries: The average composition of river water is given in Table 4-2 (from Langmuir, 1997). The concentrations are given in mg l-1 and can be compared with seawater concentrations. The main difference is that HCO3- is the main anion in river water and has a much higher concentration than Cl- (which is the lowest of the major anions in river water). Calcium is the main cation in river water, followed by Na and Mg, then K…..

      Ca has small (+ 0.5%) but systematic variations within the ocean. This has been known since the earliest analyses of seawater. Dittmar (1884) used precise analyses of 77 Challenger samples to show that the calcium/chloride ratio was higher in deep water then in surface waters.

      When the Ca increase was first discovered by Dittmar it was hypothesized to be due to dissolution of CaCO3 particles. Brewer et al. (1975) showed that the change in alkalinity with depth in the ocean (where Alkalinity ? HCO3- + 2 CO32-) was less than that expected for the change in Ca. Actually according to the CaCO3 solubility reaction (e.g. CaCO3(s) = Ca2+ + CO32-), the changes should follow the expression ?Alkalinity = 2 ?Ca. Calcium increases by 100-130 ?M as deep water flows from the Atlantic to the Pacific (Fig. 4-1) but alkalinity only increases by 120-130 ?M. As the calcium data are probably sound, Brewer et al.(1975) suggested that this was because the alkalinity was low due to titration by HNO3 produced by respiration of organic matter in the deep sea. The correct comparison should be of Ca with potential alkalinity which is the total alkalinity corrected for the NO3 produced….

      The long residence time of Sr in the ocean could suggest that its concentration does not vary over Quaternary time scales, but in fact the best estimates of the modern Sr budget suggest that it is far from steady state (Schlanger, 1988). And in fact large changes (up to 12%) in Sr/Ca in planktonic foraminifera have been observed over the past 150 ka (glacial/interglacial time scales) suggesting that Sr/Ca was higher during glacial maxima (Stoll et al., 1999). This variability reflects changes in sea level, river fluxes and carbonate accumulation rates.

      Dr. Tom Segalstad debunks the ocean “acidification” scare from a geochemical perspective.
      Chemical Laws for Distribution of CO2 in Nature

      …A buffer can be defined as a reaction system which modifies or controls the value of an intensive (i.e. mass independent) thermodynamic variable (pressure, temperature, concentration, pH, etc.). Our carbonate system above will act as a pH buffer, by the presence of a weak acid (H2CO3) and a salt of the acid (CaCO3). The concentration of CO2 (g) and of Ca2+ (aq) will in the equilibrium Earth system also be buffered by the presence of CaCO3, at a given temperature. If the partial pressure of CO2 (g) is increased, the net reaction will go towards the right because of the Law of Mass Action. If the temperature changes, the chemical equilibrium constant will change, and move the equilibrium to the left or right. The result is that the partial pressure of CO2 (g) will increase or decrease. The equilibrium will mainly be governed by Henry’s Law: the partial pressure of CO2 (g) in the air will be proportional to the concentration of CO2 (aq) dissolved in water. The proportional constant is the Henry’s Law Constant, which is strongly temperature dependent, and lesser dependent on total pressure and salinity (Drummond, 1981).

      Questions have been raised about how strong this buffer is.…

      An increase in atmospheric CO2 will namely increase the buffer capacity of ocean water, and thereby strengthen the ocean’s capacity to moderate an increase of atmospheric CO2; maximum buffer capacity for the system CO2 – H2O is reached at 2.5 to 6 times the present atmospheric partial pressure of CO2, depending on temperature and alkalinity (Butler, 1982). According to Maier-Reimer & Hasselmann (1987) the borate system also increases the ocean storage capacity for CO2 by more than 20% over an ocean with the carbonate-system alone.

      Furthermore, this carbonate buffer is not the only buffer active in the atmosphere / hydrosphere / lithosphere system. The Earth has a set of other buffering mineral reactions. The geochemical equilibrium system anorthite CaAl2Si2O8 – kaolinite Al2Si2O5(OH)4 has by the pH of ocean water a buffer capacity which is thousand times larger than a 0.001 M carbonate solution (Stumm & Morgan, 1970). In addition we have clay mineral buffers, and a calcium silicate + CO2 calcium carbonate + SiO2 buffer (MacIntyre, 1970; Krauskopf, 1979). These buffers all act as a “security net” under the most important buffer: CO2 (g) HCO3- (aq) CaCO3 (s). All together these buffers give in principle an infinite buffer capacity (Stumm & Morgan, 1970).….

      More recently in the NIPCC Report

      Reply
      • markstoval says:
        January 1, 2016 at 1:18 pm

        Gail,

        Agreed, and the article is also a rebuttal to the bullshit, but the collectivist greens have been coming up with new scares for generations and the school system, press, and the “experts” have been able sell utter un-physical delusions time after time. I know for a fact that most kids in school (at least Florida kids) just accept that driving a car warms the planet. After all, even the luke-warm “skeptics” agree with the delusional “back-radiation” heifer dust.

        Remember, the left is spinning myths and not doing science.

        Reply
      • Menicholas says:
        January 1, 2016 at 5:01 pm

        Our stomachs are full of hydrochloric acid, but our bones do not dissolve.
        I wonder if these morons understand why?

        Reply
        • saveenergy says:
          January 1, 2016 at 6:48 pm

          “Our stomachs are full of hydrochloric acid, but our bones do not dissolve.”
          Not well up on anatomy are you !!

        • Menicholas says:
          January 2, 2016 at 2:12 am

          I am very much “up on anatomy”.
          Are you up on reading comprehension?

        • saveenergy says:
          January 2, 2016 at 10:51 am

          My reading comprehension ……97%
          since when have bones been in direct contact with stomach contents ??
          Maybe that’s why our Skeletal bones do not dissolve.
          As you are “very much ā€œup on anatomyā€.” what do you think ??

          Ingested bone will start to dissolve in the stomach but because of the shape & orientation of the human stomach it tends to pass though rapidly. Give a dog a bone a few days later dissect the dog-turds, inspect the bone particles ā€¦if you can find any. Some reading for you –

          Lyman, R.L. 1994. Vertebrate Taphonomy. Cambridge University Press.

          Jones, A.K.G. 1986. Fish bone survival in the digestive systems of pig,
          dog and man, in D. Brinkhuizen & A Clason (eds.) Fish and Archaeology.
          Oxford, British Archaeological Reports International Series 294: pp53-61

      • darrylb says:
        January 1, 2016 at 9:03 pm

        Gail, thank for Dr. Tom’s rebuttal
        Ocean acidification has been my only concern with increased atmospheric CO2.

        OCEAN CHEMISTRY is really very complicated, and I have found perhaps even more complicated than presented by him in some ways.

        All of this goes to show a basic and marvelous tenant of the planet earth—-
        —– There are many,many stressors continually causing the planet to go out of equilibrium, but then, there always seems to be methods of negative feedback causing a swing back to equilibrium
        —–and to this I would like your comment—– I am increasingly of the belief that the feedback mechanisms may take many decades to occur and much the so called climate swings are due to what phase the sum of climatic oscillations are in

        The game changer really exists outside of the earth, as in the sun and the various cycles.

        Reply
        • Jason Calley says:
          January 1, 2016 at 9:56 pm

          One of the early studies on the effects of “ocean acidification” used hydrochloric acid to lower the pH, and then claimed that lower pH was dangerous to sea life. Science, huh? It seems that they did not understand that here in the real world, the oceans were not being changed by people dumping in HCl but were (theoretically) being endangered by CO2. You know… CO2. The same chemical that, once dissolved into the water, becomes one of the working materials from which the shells are actually constructed.
          See http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid2.htm#scientific_fraud for details.

        • Gail Combs says:
          January 2, 2016 at 1:37 pm

          darrylb,
          From all my reading my SWAG is
          #1. The earth system is never in equilibrium. Instead it is ‘hunting’ for equilibrium with many, many cycles/oscillations.
          #2. There are positive and negative feed backs.

          #3 There are, at the present time (last few million years) two stable states with cold being the more stable . H/T Dr Robert Brown.

          One of the biggest lies in ClimAstrology is TrainBreaths cartoon of a steady state earth and “Missing Heat” to get up to the present temperature.

          #1. Are they looking ONLY at the present temperature, or do they take the average over the last few million years?

          #2. Do they take into account the fact the young earth was a motlen ball and has since been cooling down slowly losing heat over time or do they start with absolute zero?

          http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/65_Myr_Climate_Change_Rev.jpg

          Starting hot with the heat capacity of the mantle, land and oceans factored in coupled with is going to get you to an entirely different temperature.

    • R. Shearer says:
      January 1, 2016 at 4:11 pm

      For that experiment with the sea shells, why not add tap water which is 1000% more acidic than sea water and see what happens?

      Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        January 1, 2016 at 4:20 pm

        Just make sure you add chunks of limestone first.

        Reply
      • Menicholas says:
        January 1, 2016 at 5:05 pm

        Since seawater is not an acid, it can be 1000 trillion times more acidic, and still not dissolve.
        The pH scale has a centerline, and acids are on one side, and bases on the other.
        An acid is defined in a certain way (actually, there are several definitions…Arrhenius’s, Lewis’s, Bronsted-Lowry’s…), but the climate liars do everything they can to render language and actual definitions meaningless.
        The better to promote outright BS as science.

        Reply
        • Gail Combs says:
          January 1, 2016 at 5:41 pm

          Menicholas, You completely misunderstood.

          I was answering the comment:
          “…For that experiment with the sea shells, why not add tap water which is 1000% more acidic than sea water…”
          ……………
          Actually it completely depends on where the tap water is coming from. During a drought in the Boston area the Merrimac River derived tap water was chuck full of organic acids and had a low pH between 6 and 7 (It also smelled like a swamp — yuck!) Even with de-ionization it’s pH was acidic and caused havoc with the chemical batches the company was making that need a pH of about 8. Worse each batch tank of water was different. We had to titrate with a KOH solution to figure out how much KOH had to go into each different batch. It was a real PITA.

          The chunks of limestone are just slow acting replacements for the KOH with a bit of sarcasm tossed in. Ocean basins are full of limestone and metals and the oceans full of buffers as a result.

          In most cases, thanks to limestone, well water at least is alkaline (Hard). With river water, all bets are off thanks to the organic acids. (You will never drink city water again after you have had to change the filters on the city water line going into the DI system — GROSS!)

          pH of Ground Water and City Water [Wisconsin] city water between pH 6.9 and pH of 8.4.

          From the UN pH in Drinking-water – World Health Organization

          The pH of water is a measure of the acidā€“base equilibrium and, in most natural waters, is
          controlled by the carbon dioxideā€“bicarbonateā€“carbonate equilibrium system. An increased
          carbon dioxide concentration will therefore lower pH, whereas a decrease will cause it to rise.
          Temperature will also affect the equilibria and the pH. In pure water, a decrease in pH of
          about 0.45 occurs as the temperature is raised by 25 Ā°C. In water with a buffering capacity
          imparted by bicarbonate, carbonate, and hydroxyl ions, this temperature effect is modified
          (1). The pH of most raw water lies within the range 6.5ā€“8.5 (1).

        • darrylb says:
          January 1, 2016 at 9:08 pm

          Oceans, Lakes, Marshes and the like all have a bio-system which causes the water to be alkaline pH sometimes even close to 9.0
          When lakes dried up as here in Minnesota in the 30’s and 50’s the lakes were too alkaline to farm, However, they were able to be used as pasture land.

        • Menicholas says:
          January 2, 2016 at 2:12 am

          I did not misunderstand, Gail.
          I was just making a point about how acid base chemistry seems to be very poorly understood by many people. In particular, those who insist on calling any shift lower in pH “acidification”.
          I am not usually pedantic about language, but in the case of so-called ocean acidification, I make an exception.

        • Gail Combs says:
          January 3, 2016 at 7:19 am

          Menicholas, agreed. Acidification should be neutralization but it doesn’t cause panic like acidification does.

          darrylb,
          It depends. Rain water is acidic and creeks and rivers can have a wide range of pH from Acid to bas as a result of how much rain and what the river bed is composed of and as you said what the water biosphere is.

  4. RAH says:
    January 1, 2016 at 1:40 pm

    It looks like old man winter is here for the rest of the season Just as Joe Bastardi and the guys at Weatherbell have been predicting since last summer.

    Just got back from a run to MA. Got my first little taste of winter driving this winter on Thursday. First ice buildup on the windshield wipers though I passed through the portion of I-90 in NY and PA before the lake effect snows hit. I hate being on the road on New Years Eve. Too many people trying to get someplace to party. There was a five mile back up on I-90 west bound at the junction with I-91 at 2:30 PM yesterday. Too many people heading for NYC I guess.

    My posting has been limited. Still working to learn this new computer and get it set up.
    I HAVE to get to Comcast to upgrade my cable modem from the 25 MPS I was using with my old computer to the 75 MPS that windows 10 apparently needs to function correctly. But work and New Year Holiday have conspired to prevent that from happening so far. Windows 10 is a whole new ball game for a guy that was using XP and it’s going to take awhile for me to figure it out.

    Once I get the new modem and have that working and my home Network set up I will then start downloading all the accumulated data and links I had on my old machine onto this one. Then after that it’s getting the hardware for my TVs so I can use Chrome Cast to stream videos, movies, and music to them.

    Then I will have to connect my Samsung S6 phone and my tablet to it. All this may be a snap for some but right now, this truck driver is kinda overwhelmed by it all and is playing catch up big time during upgrade.

    Reply
  5. Frank K. says:
    January 1, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    I rather enjoyed the warmer Fall and early Winter here in the Northeast, given, as Tony pointed out, our severe Winter / early Spring of 2014-2015.

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      January 1, 2016 at 2:24 pm

      I am just happy my kid crop (goats) was born in very nice weather and have been able to frolic in the grass for over a month. Now they are nice and big and ready to withstand nasty weather without me hauling the newborns into the house each night and then hauling them back out to mama for the day. (I really do not like heat lamps where goats could possibly get to them.)

      I still have Taffy, a bottle baby from last year, making a dash for the open house door when ever she can. She gets in the truck too.

      Reply
      • Latitude says:
        January 1, 2016 at 2:43 pm

        too funny….and way too cute!
        You know, people used to celebrate weather like this. Now these a=holes have even turned that into some guilt trip.

        Reply
        • RAH says:
          January 1, 2016 at 3:07 pm

          No guilt or worries for me! I loved it while it lasted and it seemed to be that everyone else around here enjoyed it also. White Christmases are nice but I didn’t shed any tears about it being almost 60 deg. F on that day.

          But our warmer than normal December is over and old man winter is here. I guess that means global warming is elsewhere right now.

          It’s time for the under armor and poly pro underwear to come out and soon I’m sure I’ll will be shoveling and blowing snow from the deck and walks and the driveway and playing with the FJ on the snowy roads. And dealing with the winter in the big truck.

          Now I gotta get dressed and load up some fire wood for the fireplace and then go get some ice melt and set it out in a 5 gallon pail by the back door for use because my wife took a tumble on our deck when it was frosted over one morning while I was gone.

          We have our 13 month old granddaughter and she loves having a fire in the fireplace.
          She touched the chainmail spark screen and it was warm enough that she figured out that it’s nice to be close to the fire but not too close. Just got to watch her when she is around it because she just isn’t steady on her feet yet.

      • Gail Combs says:
        January 1, 2016 at 3:18 pm

        Our last buck was the featured guest last night for dinner (YUM!) so I need a new buck.

        It just so happens “…The USDA Regional Climate Hubs were established last year across the country, and the Southeast Regional Climate Hub (SERCH), in Raleigh, NC, is here to serve the agricultural climate change needs of the Carolinas (along with 9 other southeastern states)…”

        I am REALLY looking forward to their help in finding a nice woolly cashmere buck to help winter proof my goat herd during the coming solar minimum….

        https://media2.stickersmalin.com/produit/100/stickers-devil-smile-R1-143760-2.png

        I just have to select which peer – reviewed papers I need to bring with me.

        https://www.carolinafarmstewards.org/serch/

        https://globalchange.ncsu.edu/serch/

        Southeast Regional Climate Hub
        920 Main Campus Dr, Suite 300
        Raleigh, NC 27606

        Reply
  6. Andy DC says:
    January 1, 2016 at 2:15 pm

    Quite a remarkable warm December, due to an unusual and persistent WEATHER pattern. No more indicative of climate change than the remarkably cold late winter WEATHER pattern this year that created a frozen and snow covered Potomac River in DC for the first time EVER in March.

    The WEATHER is often doing something remarkable going back in history. That is why I have always found WEATHER history to be such an interesting and fascinating topic.

    Reply
  7. AndyG55 says:
    January 1, 2016 at 7:04 pm

    Final data in on Arctic sea ice 2015….

    Upward trend since 2007.

    https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/masie-day-2015365r.jpg

    Reply

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