E-Mail from Andy DC
Hi Steve,I imagine you heard about the latest DC area snow fiasco. They are already dubbing it “Snowquester”.Just before the “storm” began, the weather models (about 10 of them) were predicting 8-12″ of snow for downtown DC. Even the most “bearish” model predicted 5″. Same models likewise predicted 12-18″ for western suburbs with the most bearish predicting 10″. They shut down the government, all the schools, etc.The net result was nothing in downtown DC, an inch of slush where I live in Greenbelt and only 2-3″ in normally snowy western suburbs like Germantown and Dulles Airport.So we are supposed to believe that similar models that can’t make an accurate 6 hr forecast can make a 50 year forecast? Give me a break!Andy
The average / mean of 22 wrong forecasts is the most likely scenario in the Fantasy World of NOAA!
I think I could get good usage out of a model for 6 hours! But after 50 years, she would be far from perfect.
That one caught us as well. Initially, the European model was predicting 4-8 inches here. But 24 hours before it was to hit, the model changed and said it was moving farther north. So we would get only rain. Yesterday I woke up to Thundersnow! And it snowed like a bat out of hell for most of the day (the only thing that saved us was that it was too warm to really accumulate). We got 2-6 inches when 24 hours prior, we were to get none, and 48 hours prior we were to get 4-8.
I do not fault the meteorologists. Mother nature pulled a fast one. But Andy is correct. The science it not settled yet – even for short term forecasts.
Harrisburg PA same thing, every forecast between 4-8 inches. I don’t think we even got a flake, and just a tiny amount of rain. Instead of European etc they should name them Blonde, Brunette and Redhead models.
#dangersexistjoke
Clearly, sudden AGW is to blame for the reduction in snow (sarcasm).
Clearly you have misunderstood, in the new model world you did have 8-10 inches of snow and that is what the Hansenized record will show commrade!